AFAAir Force
145-2 · 3-2 Mountain WestFINAL
WYOWyoming
285-3 · 4-1 Mountain WestWYO +7 COVERUNDER 46.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP WYO 31%→POSTGAME WE WYO 78%
War Memorial Stadium · 18,490- Postgame WE
- 78%WYO · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.47AFA +0.06
- Success rate
- 49%AFA 51%
- Turnovers
- 0–3≈ 12.3 pts swing
- vs model
- −14proj AFA by 8.2
- Plays · pace
- 118proj 130 · 30.5s
Win probability · full game
WYO LOW 32% · Q1 15:00 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.1Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1
Illegal Formation on AFAShotgun #5 E.Medders rush left for 17 yards gain to the WYO08 (#25 T.Williams) PENALTY AFA Illegal Formation 5 yards from WYO25 to WYO30. NO PLAYQ2 14:21 · 3rd & 4 WYO 25 · −2.1 AFA EPAQ2 14:21 · 3rd & 4 WYO 25 · −2.1 AFA EPA+.18 - 2Allen fumble, WYO recoversShotgun #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards loss to the AFA44 fumbled by #2 O.Allen at AFA45 recovered by WYO #11 E.Bogar at AFA44, End Of PlayQ1 11:00 · 1st & 10 AFA 47 · −5.6 AFA EPAQ1 11:00 · 1st & 10 AFA 47 · −5.6 AFA EPA+.15
- 3Johnson fumble, WYO recovers#11 J.Johnson rush left for 9 yards loss to the WYO19 fumbled by #11 J.Johnson at WYO13 forced by #26 G.Rutherford recovered by WYO #11 E.Bogar at WYO19, End Of PlayQ4 12:09 · 3rd & 9 WYO 10 · −4.5 AFA EPAQ4 12:09 · 3rd & 9 WYO 10 · −4.5 AFA EPA+.13
- 4Medders run, −4Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush left for 4 yards loss to the WYO25 (#98 J.Williams)Q3 4:53 · 1st & 10 WYO 21 · −1.7 AFA EPAQ3 4:53 · 1st & 10 WYO 21 · −1.7 AFA EPA+.12
- 5Hughes 12-yd TD to RichardsonShotgun #6 T.Hughes pass complete short left to #2 E.Richardson caught at AFA08, for 12 yards to the AFA00 lateral to #1 S.Harris TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:38 #47 E.Sandvik kick attempt good (H: #43 G.Helm, LS: #49 N.Curry)Q2 0:38 · 3rd & Goal · 14–6 → 21–6 · +4.1 EPAQ2 0:38 · 14–6 → 21–6 · +4.1 EPA+.11
Player EPA
Total · game
- Tyler Hughes · QB10/17 · 113 YDS · 2 TD · 146 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD+19.3
Evan Medders · QB3/4 · 27 YDS · 1 TD · 115 RUSH YDS · FUM+13.6- Gage LaDue · FB10 CAR · 57 YDS · 1 REC · 21 REC YDS+4.9
- Josh Johnson · QB2/4 · 20 YDS · 0 INT · 2 FUM−6.3
- Owen Allen · RB13 CAR · 42 YDS−8.6
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | AFA | WYO |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 387 | 301 |
| Plays | 78 | 41 |
| Yards / play | 5.0 | 7.3 |
| EPA / play | +0.06 | +0.47 |
| Success rate | 51% | 49% |
| Explosive plays | 6 | 5 |
| Havoc rate | 7% | 13% |
| 3rd down | 8–15 | 2–6 |
| Pts / opportunity | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Time of possession | 37:45 | 22:15 |
| Postgame WE | 22% | 78% |