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FINAL · ESPN · STANFORD STADIUM
NCSUNC State
283-4 · 1-3 ACC
28
FINAL
STANStanford
314-4 · 2-3 ACC
31
STAN +7.5 COVEROVER 54.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP STAN 29%→POSTGAME WE STAN 40%
Stanford Stadium
Postgame WE
40%STAN · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.33NCSU +0.25
Success rate
46%NCSU 51%
Turnovers
0–0
vs model
−3proj NCSU by 9.0
Plays · pace
130proj 134 · 27.7s

Win probability · full game

STAN LOW 24% · Q2 6:07 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.8

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1NC State
    Bailey 58-yd TD to Desinor
    (02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete deep left to #20 D.Desinor caught at STAN31, for 58 yards to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:12, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #96 J.Waller, LS: #92 A.Arias)
    Q1 2:21 · 1st & 10 · 14–0 → 14–7 · +4.8 EPA
    Q1 2:21 · 14–0 → 14–7 · +4.8 EPA
    −.22
  2. 2Stanford
    Warren 26-yd TD to High
    (00:31) Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete deep left to #0 C.High caught at NCSU01, for 26 yards to the NCSU00 QB hurried by #8 D.Nelson TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:25, 1ST DOWN Timeout Stanford, clock 00:31 #13 E.Kenney kick attempt good (H: #37 A.Flintoft, LS: #47 A.Chavez)
    Q2 0:31 · 1st & 10 · 14–14 → 21–14 · +4.1 EPA
    Q2 0:31 · 14–14 → 21–14 · +4.1 EPA
    +.19
  3. 3Stanford
    Warren 5-yd TD to Brown
    (09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Warren pass complete short left to #23 N.Brown caught at NCSU00, for 5 yards to the NCSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:20, 1ST DOWN #13 E.Kenney kick attempt good (H: #37 A.Flintoft, LS: #47 A.Chavez)
    Q3 9:24 · 4th & 4 · 21–14 → 28–14 · +4.1 EPA
    Q3 9:24 · 21–14 → 28–14 · +4.1 EPA
    +.14
  4. 4Stanford
    Ford 2-yd run
    (05:43) Shotgun #20 M.Ford rush middle for 2 yards gain to the STAN50 (#2 R.Royal, III), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 5:43 · 4th & 1 STAN 48 · +2.0 EPA
    Q1 5:43 · 4th & 1 STAN 48 · +2.0 EPA
    +.13
  5. 5NC State
    Gause 12-yd run
    (08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Gause rush right for 12 yards gain to the STAN25 (#10 S.Mattingly; #11 T.Tafiti), 1ST DOWN
    Q2 8:51 · 2nd & 9 STAN 37 · +1.4 EPA
    Q2 8:51 · 2nd & 9 STAN 37 · +1.4 EPA
    −.12

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 130 plays