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PREGAME · FS1 · HUNTINGTON BANK STADIUM
Iowa
#15 · 5-1 · −7.5
Minnesota
4-2 · +7.5
KICKOFF IN7:57:333:30 PM ET · FS1 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Spread · now
IOWA −7.5▲ 1 · SUN 5:12P
Model
IOWA −8.6+1.1
Win prob
70%was 70 · weekly run
Total
40.5model 49.8
At kickoff
73°10 mph SW · 15% rain

Where the model sees the game

Largest unit mismatches

  1. The Iowa run defense vs Minnesota's run game

    Minnesota gains −0.10 EPA a play on the run (138th); Iowa allows −0.08 (2nd). About 26 such plays projected.

    IOWA +12.0MODEL IMPACT

  2. Iowa's run game vs the Minnesota run defense

    Iowa gains +0.11 EPA a play on the run (46th); Minnesota allows +0.10 (90th). About 28 such plays projected.

    IOWA +3.0MODEL IMPACT

  3. The pace fight

    MINN snaps every 36.4 s, IOWA every 29.0 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 4.0 points. The model projects 124 plays against a 131 average.

    U 3.0TOTAL IMPACT

Late news

Auto-updating
  1. Walsh ruled outMINN TE · Q → OUT
  2. Sunram ruled outMINN DL · Q → OUT
  3. IOWA availability reportUpdate 2 · conf:bigten
  4. MINN availability reportUpdate 2 · conf:bigten
  5. Ball probableMINN OL · Q → P
  6. Spence probableMINN OL · Q → P
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