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FINAL · ESPNU · YULMAN STADIUM
UTSAUTSA
427-1 · 4-0 American
42
FINAL
TULNTulane
193-4 · 1-2 American
19
UTSA −3 COVEROVER 52.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP UTSA 47%→POSTGAME WE UTSA 84%
Yulman Stadium
Postgame WE
84%UTSA · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.14TULN −0.23
Success rate
51%TULN 29%
Turnovers
3–3≈ 1.0 pts swing
vs model
−23proj TULN by 1.4
Plays · pace
132proj 123 · 27.3s

Win probability · full game

UTSA LOW 33% · Q1 13:12 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.1

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Tulane
    Rogers 22-yd pick-six off McCown
    (14:59) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass intercepted by #12 A.Rogers at TSA22 #12 A.Rogers return 22 yards to the TSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:55 #35 C.Helmke kick attempt good (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo)
    Q1 14:59 · 1st & 10 · 0–0 → 0–7 · −7.5 UTSA EPA
    Q1 14:59 · 0–0 → 0–7 · −7.5 UTSA EPA
    −.20
  2. 2UTSA
    Lewis fumble, TSA recovers
    (09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 Z.Lewis Jr. rush middle for 11 yards loss to the TLN46 fumbled by #1 Z.Lewis Jr. at TLN48 forced by #94 E.Smith recovered by TSA #20 Z.Morris at TLN46, End Of Play
    Q2 9:05 · 1st & 10 UTSA 43 · −6.2 TULN EPA
    Q2 9:05 · 1st & 10 UTSA 43 · −6.2 TULN EPA
    +.17
  3. 3Tulane
    Johnson 56-yd pass to Mmahat
    (14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 T.Johnson pass complete deep middle to #16 G.Mmahat caught at TSA26, for 56 yards to the TSA18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
    Q2 14:52 · 3rd & 9 TULN 26 · +5.9 EPA
    Q2 14:52 · 3rd & 9 TULN 26 · +5.9 EPA
    −.15
  4. 4UTSA
    Peterson 16-yd TD run
    (00:14) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush right for 16 yards gain to the TLN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:13, 1ST DOWN #3 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges)
    Q1 0:14 · 3rd & 2 · 7–7 → 14–7 · +2.4 EPA
    Q1 0:14 · 7–7 → 14–7 · +2.4 EPA
    +.12
  5. 5UTSA
    Johnson fumble, TSA recovers
    (03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 T.Johnson rush right for 22 yards loss to the TSA44 fumbled by #11 T.Johnson at TSA27 recovered by TSA #1 C.Cooper at TSA44, End Of Play
    Q1 3:09 · 2nd & 9 UTSA 22 · −6.2 TULN EPA
    Q1 3:09 · 2nd & 9 UTSA 22 · −6.2 TULN EPA
    +.11

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 132 plays