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PREGAME · ESPN+ · UB STADIUM
Bowling Green
2-5 · +3
Buffalo
4-3 · −3
KICKOFF IN7:57:343:30 PM ET · ESPN+ · UB Stadium
Spread · now
BUFF −3▼ 1.5 · 2:15
Model
BUFF −4.6+1.6
Win prob
61%was 61 · weekly run
Total
44.5model 46.5
At kickoff
62°1 mph SSW · 0% rain

Where the model sees the game

Largest unit mismatches

  1. The Bowling Green pass defense vs Buffalo's passing game

    Buffalo gains −0.07 EPA a play on the pass (132nd); Bowling Green allows +0.13 (80th). About 31 such plays projected.

    BGSU +7.6MODEL IMPACT

  2. The Buffalo run defense vs Bowling Green's run game

    Bowling Green gains −0.09 EPA a play on the run (137th); Buffalo allows +0.08 (73rd). About 34 such plays projected.

    BUFF +7.5MODEL IMPACT

  3. Buffalo's run game vs the Bowling Green run defense

    Buffalo gains −0.00 EPA a play on the run (114th); Bowling Green allows +0.20 (134th). About 34 such plays projected.

    BUFF +3.2MODEL IMPACT

Late news

Auto-updating
  1. Spread to BUFF −3REVERSE LINE MOVE · SPREAD · BUFF −4.5 → −3 · 19 books
  2. Ryan Cavanaugh assignedREPORTED · analyst · ESPN+
  3. Anthony Lima assignedREPORTED · play by play · ESPN+
  4. Spread to BUFF −3.5LINE MOVE · SPREAD · BUFF −4.5 → −3.5 · 11 books
  5. Spread to BUFF −3.5STEAM · SPREAD · BUFF −4.5 → −3.5 · 4 books · 300s window
  6. Total up to 44.5LINE MOVE · TOTAL · 43.5 → 44.5 · 6 books
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