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PREGAME · FOX · FBC MORTGAGE STADIUM
BYU
#2 · 6-0 · −7.5
UCF
3-3 · +7.5
KICKOFF IN8:46:473:30 PM ET · FOX · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Spread · now
BYU −7.5▲ 1 · FRI 1:41P
Model
BYU −10.2+2.7
Win prob
73%was 73 · weekly run
Total
43.5model 51.4
At kickoff
81°15 mph NNE · 28% rain

Where the model sees the game

Largest unit mismatches

  1. The BYU pass defense vs UCF's passing game

    UCF gains +0.11 EPA a play on the pass (72nd); BYU allows −0.08 (5th). About 30 such plays projected.

    BYU +8.9MODEL IMPACT

  2. The pace fight

    UCF snaps every 30.6 s, BYU every 29.7 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 4.3 points. The model projects 121 plays against a 131 average.

    U 4.5TOTAL IMPACT

  3. BYU's passing game vs the UCF pass defense

    BYU gains +0.23 EPA a play on the pass (26th); UCF allows +0.06 (42nd). About 29 such plays projected.

    BYU +2.6MODEL IMPACT

Late news

Auto-updating
  1. Thomas Jr. probableUCF WR · Q → P
  2. Burk cleared to playUCF TE · P → AVAILABLE
  3. Culbreath cleared to playUCF LB · P → AVAILABLE
  4. Jackson Jr. ruled outUCF DT · D → OUT
  5. BYU availability reportUpdate 2 · conf:big12
  6. UCF availability reportUpdate 2 · conf:big12
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