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PREGAME · CW · UNIVERSITY STADIUM
North Dakota State
6-1 · +4.5
New Mexico
5-1 · −4.5
KICKOFF IN13:48:1910:00 PM ET · CW · University Stadium
Spread · now
UNM −4.5
Model
UNM −5.2+0.7
Win prob
62%was 62 · weekly run
Total
40.5model 44.5
At kickoff
57°10 mph SE · 75% rain

Where the model sees the game

Largest unit mismatches

  1. The New Mexico run defense vs North Dakota State's run game

    North Dakota State gains −0.00 EPA a play on the run (117th); New Mexico allows −0.03 (11th). About 38 such plays projected.

    UNM +9.9MODEL IMPACT

  2. The North Dakota State pass defense vs New Mexico's passing game

    New Mexico gains +0.11 EPA a play on the pass (70th); North Dakota State allows −0.09 (3rd). About 24 such plays projected.

    NDSU +7.3MODEL IMPACT

  3. The New Mexico pass defense vs North Dakota State's passing game

    North Dakota State gains +0.10 EPA a play on the pass (73rd); New Mexico allows −0.02 (16th). About 26 such plays projected.

    UNM +5.5MODEL IMPACT

Late news

Auto-updating
  1. Total down to 40.5LINE MOVE · TOTAL · 41.5 → 40.5 · 20 books
  2. NDSU availability reportAI gap-fill (unofficial) · agent:injuries
  3. NDSU availability reportInitial Report · conf:mountainwest
  4. UNM availability reportInitial Report · conf:mountainwest
  5. NDSU availability reportAI gap-fill (unofficial) · agent:injuries
  6. Givance outNDSU S · REPORTED · PER Dom Izzo
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