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PREGAME · ESPN · FBC MORTGAGE STADIUM
Baylor
4-2
UCF
3-3
KICKOFF IN156:46:487:30 PM ET · ESPN · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Model
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Win prob
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Total
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At kickoff
76°13 mph NE · 23% rain

Where the model sees the game

Largest unit mismatches
  1. The UCF run defense vs Baylor's run game

    Baylor gains −0.01 EPA a play on the run (118th); UCF allows +0.00 (27th). About 30 such plays projected.

    UCF +6.1MODEL IMPACT
  2. The Baylor run defense vs UCF's run game

    UCF gains +0.06 EPA a play on the run (74th); Baylor allows −0.04 (7th). About 34 such plays projected.

    BAY +5.9MODEL IMPACT
  3. The Baylor pass defense vs UCF's passing game

    UCF gains +0.11 EPA a play on the pass (72nd); Baylor allows +0.06 (40th). About 34 such plays projected.

    BAY +3.3MODEL IMPACT

Late news

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