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FINAL · ESPN2 · YAGER STADIUM
Ohio
OhioOHIO177-3 · 5-1 MAC
17
FINAL
M-OH +1.5 COVEROVER 47.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP M-OH 51%POSTGAME WE M-OH 83%

Yager Stadium · 17,156

Miami (OH)
Miami (OH)M-OH346-4 · 4-2 MAC
34
Postgame WE
83%
M-OH · 10k sims
Offense EPA / play
−0.02
OHIO −0.18
Success rate
35%
OHIO 36%
Turnovers
0–2
≈ 9.1 pts swing
vs model
+17
proj M-OH by 0.4
Plays · pace
139
proj 120 · 25.9s

How often this box score wins

Win probability · full game

M-OH LOW 6% · Q2 5:35 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.6

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Miami (OH)

    Poulos fumble, MIA recovers

    (02:04) Shotgun #8 N.Poulos rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Ohio48 fumbled by #8 N.Poulos at Ohio48 forced by #3 M.McCain recovered by MIA #3 M.McCain at Ohio48, End Of Play

    Q4 2:04 · 4th & 6 OHIO 42 · −1.8 OHIO EPA
    Q4 2:04 · 4th & 6 OHIO 42 · −1.8 OHIO EPA
    +.18
  2. 2Miami (OH)

    Haines incomplete to Herrmann, broken up by Myrick

    (00:00) #42 M.Haines pass incomplete short right to #11 E.Herrmann thrown to MIA00 broken up by #15 B.Myrick

    Q2 0:00 · 1st & Goal M-OH 8 · −4.1 OHIO EPA
    Q2 0:00 · 1st & Goal M-OH 8 · −4.1 OHIO EPA
    +.15
  3. 3Miami (OH)

    Lyons sacks Poulos, −7

    (06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Poulos sacked for loss of 7 yards to the Ohio19 (#43 G.Lyons)

    Q3 6:02 · 3rd & 8 OHIO 26 · −1.7 OHIO EPA
    Q3 6:02 · 3rd & 8 OHIO 26 · −1.7 OHIO EPA
    +.14
  4. 4Ohio

    Poulos 8-yd TD to Neer

    (10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Poulos pass complete short middle to #15 R.Neer caught at MIA00, for 8 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:05, 1ST DOWN #43 B.Peacock kick attempt good (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #52 N.Hemer)

    Q1 10:08 · 3rd & Goal · 0–0 → 0–7 · +3.2 EPA
    Q1 10:08 · 0–0 → 0–7 · +3.2 EPA
    −.12
  5. 5Miami (OH)

    Bellisari 26-yd run

    (06:37) Shotgun #11 D.Bellisari rush right for 26 yards gain to the Ohio27 (#20 K.Bannister), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Ohio Tripping (#20 K.Bannister) 14 yards from Ohio27 to Ohio13, 1ST DOWN

    Q4 6:37 · 2nd & 10 M-OH 47 · +3.2 EPA
    Q4 6:37 · 2nd & 10 M-OH 47 · +3.2 EPA
    +.12

Player EPA

Total · game