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FINAL · ESPNU · KELLY/SHORTS STADIUM
Sacramento State
Sacramento StateSAC72-9 · 1-7 MAC
7
FINAL
CMU −17.5 COVERUNDER 41.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP CMU 81%POSTGAME WE CMU 90%

Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 8,568

Central Michigan
Central MichiganCMU285-5 · 3-3 MAC
28
Postgame WE
90%
CMU · 10k sims
Offense EPA / play
+0.21
SAC −0.25
Success rate
41%
SAC 39%
Turnovers
1–1
≈ 0.8 pts swing
vs model
+21
proj CMU by 14.7
Plays · pace
119
proj 125 · 30.3s

How often this box score wins

Win probability · full game

CMU LOW 86% · Q2 4:01 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 3.5

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Central Michigan

    Taylor intercepts Salazar

    (06:17) Shotgun #6 B.Salazar Jr pass intercepted by #14 J.Taylor at CMU07 broken up by #17 C.Ali #14 J.Taylor return 2 yards to the CMU09 (#85 E.Huddle)

    Q1 6:17 · 1st & 10 CMU 16 · −5.4 SAC EPA
    Q1 6:17 · 1st & 10 CMU 16 · −5.4 SAC EPA
    +.05
  2. 2Sacramento State

    Ene 37-yd TD run

    (04:08) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush left for 37 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:01, 1ST DOWN #9 S.Marks kick attempt good (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton)

    Q2 4:08 · 2nd & 4 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +4.1 EPA
    Q2 4:08 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +4.1 EPA
    −.05
  3. 3Central Michigan

    Blue 8-yd TD run

    (00:26) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush left for 8 yards gain to the SSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:19, 1ST DOWN #38 C.VanHuis kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #51 Z.Curtis)

    Q2 0:26 · 3rd & 6 · 7–7 → 14–7 · +3.3 EPA
    Q2 0:26 · 7–7 → 14–7 · +3.3 EPA
    +.04
  4. 4Sacramento State

    False Start on CMU

    PENALTY CMU False Start (#69 J.Booth) 5 yards from SSU03 to SSU08. NO PLAY

    Q2 0:26 · 3rd & 1 SAC 3 · −1.3 CMU EPA
    Q2 0:26 · 3rd & 1 SAC 3 · −1.3 CMU EPA
    −.03
  5. 5Central Michigan

    Townsend 40-yd TD run

    (06:31) Shotgun #2 B.Townsend rush middle for 40 yards gain to the SSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:23, 1ST DOWN #38 C.VanHuis kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #51 Z.Curtis)

    Q3 6:31 · 3rd & 5 · 14–7 → 21–7 · +4.7 EPA
    Q3 6:31 · 14–7 → 21–7 · +4.7 EPA
    +.03

Player EPA

Total · game