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FINAL · ESPNU · WILLIAMS STADIUM
SHSUSam Houston
31-4 · 0-1 C-USA
3
FINAL
LIBLiberty
355-1 · 2-0 C-USA
35
LIB −13.5 COVERUNDER 53MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP LIB 70%→POSTGAME WE LIB 100%
Williams Stadium · 15,335
Postgame WE
100%LIB · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.49SHSU −0.22
Success rate
60%SHSU 29%
Turnovers
0–0
vs model
+32proj LIB by 8.5
Plays · pace
112proj 133 · 32.1s

Win probability · full game

LIB LOW 81% · Q1 14:39 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 1.9

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Liberty
    Purdie 22-yd pass to Jackson
    (12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete deep left to #2 M.Jackson caught at SH20, for 22 yards to the SH18 (#5 I.Atkins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q1 12:13 · 2nd & 2 SHSU 40 · +1.4 EPA
    Q1 12:13 · 2nd & 2 SHSU 40 · +1.4 EPA
    +.04
  2. 2Liberty
    Purdie 15-yd TD to Randolph
    (10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short middle to #9 B.Randolph caught at SH07, for 15 yards to the SH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:48, 1ST DOWN #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)
    Q1 10:52 · 3rd & 7 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.2 EPA
    Q1 10:52 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.2 EPA
    +.04
  3. 3Liberty
    Davis 9-yd run
    (14:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush left for 9 yards gain to the LU34 (#21 D.Ford)
    Q1 14:44 · 1st & 10 LIB 25 · +1.2 EPA
    Q1 14:44 · 1st & 10 LIB 25 · +1.2 EPA
    +.03
  4. 4Liberty
    Purdie 19-yd run
    (09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush left for 19 yards gain to the SH03 (#8 T.Bailey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
    Q3 9:25 · 1st & 10 SHSU 22 · +1.6 EPA
    Q3 9:25 · 1st & 10 SHSU 22 · +1.6 EPA
    +.03
  5. 5Liberty
    Vasko 1-yd TD run
    (14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush left for 1 yard gain to the SH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:15 #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)
    Q2 14:18 · 2nd & Goal · 7–0 → 14–0 · +0.8 EPA
    Q2 14:18 · 7–0 → 14–0 · +0.8 EPA
    +.02

Player EPA

Total · game