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FINAL · CBSSN · FARGODOME
NEVNevada
172-4 · 1-2 Mountain West
17
FINAL
NDSUNorth Dakota State
316-1 · 3-1 Mountain West
31
NEV +14.5 COVEROVER 42.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP NDSU 80%→POSTGAME WE NDSU 86%
Fargodome · 18,261
Postgame WE
86%NDSU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.04NEV −0.28
Success rate
41%NEV 30%
Turnovers
0–1≈ 4.6 pts swing
vs model
+14proj NDSU by 13.8
Plays · pace
126proj 127 · 28.6s

Win probability · full game

NDSU LOW 56% · Q2 11:25 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.5

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1North Dakota State
    Bianco 19-yd pass to Givens
    (00:07) Shotgun #10 A.Bianco pass complete short middle to #7 G.Givens III caught at NDSU40, for 19 yards to the NDSU39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
    Q2 0:07 · 1st & 10 NEV 42 · −7.4 NEV EPA
    Q2 0:07 · 1st & 10 NEV 42 · −7.4 NEV EPA
    +.15
  2. 2North Dakota State
    Roughing The Passer on NEV
    (09:16) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #81 R.Kessel thrown to NDSU50 broken up by #1 J.Naborne-Owens PENALTY NEV Roughing The Passer (#18 A.Walker) 15 yards from NDSU50 to NEV35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
    Q2 9:16 · 2nd & 4 50 · +1.1 EPA
    Q2 9:16 · 2nd & 4 50 · +1.1 EPA
    +.07
  3. 3North Dakota State
    Hayes 4-yd pass to St. Romain
    (00:55) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #17 I.St. Romain caught at NEV27, for 4 yards to the NEV27 (#0 J.Scott), 1ST DOWN
    Q2 0:55 · 4th & 4 NEV 31 · +1.7 EPA
    Q2 0:55 · 4th & 4 NEV 31 · +1.7 EPA
    +.07
  4. 4Nevada
    Robinson 41-yd punt return
    (11:36) #39 A.Bickerton punt 41 yards to the NEV34 #14 G.Robinson return 41 yards to the NDSU25 (#20 W.Steil)
    Q2 11:36 · 4th & 5 NDSU 25 · −2.5 NDSU EPA
    Q2 11:36 · 4th & 5 NDSU 25 · −2.5 NDSU EPA
    −.07
  5. 5Nevada
    Bianco 15-yd TD run
    (14:20) Shotgun #10 A.Bianco rush right for 15 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:15, 1ST DOWN #81 T.Estes rush attempt Successful
    Q2 14:20 · 3rd & 4 · 0–0 → 0–8 · +2.9 EPA
    Q2 14:20 · 0–0 → 0–8 · +2.9 EPA
    −.06

Player EPA

Total · game

Play-by-play

Box score

Team box score, Nevada at North Dakota State
StatNEVNDSU
Total yards286345
Plays5770
Yards / play5.04.9
EPA / play−0.28+0.04
Success rate30%41%
Explosive plays93
Havoc rate10%14%
3rd down6–146–15
Pts / opportunity1.892.44
Turnovers10
Time of possession21:5138:09
Postgame WE14%86%