

NEVNevada
172-4 · 1-2 Mountain WestFINAL


NDSUNorth Dakota State
316-1 · 3-1 Mountain WestNEV +14.5 COVEROVER 42.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP NDSU 80%→POSTGAME WE NDSU 86%
Fargodome · 18,261- Postgame WE
- 86%NDSU · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.04NEV −0.28
- Success rate
- 41%NEV 30%
- Turnovers
- 0–1≈ 4.6 pts swing
- vs model
- +14proj NDSU by 13.8
- Plays · pace
- 126proj 127 · 28.6s
Win probability · full game
NDSU LOW 56% · Q2 11:25 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.5Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1

Bianco 19-yd pass to Givens(00:07) Shotgun #10 A.Bianco pass complete short middle to #7 G.Givens III caught at NDSU40, for 19 yards to the NDSU39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNQ2 0:07 · 1st & 10 NEV 42 · −7.4 NEV EPAQ2 0:07 · 1st & 10 NEV 42 · −7.4 NEV EPA+.15 - 2

Roughing The Passer on NEV(09:16) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #81 R.Kessel thrown to NDSU50 broken up by #1 J.Naborne-Owens PENALTY NEV Roughing The Passer (#18 A.Walker) 15 yards from NDSU50 to NEV35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYQ2 9:16 · 2nd & 4 50 · +1.1 EPAQ2 9:16 · 2nd & 4 50 · +1.1 EPA+.07 - 3

Hayes 4-yd pass to St. Romain(00:55) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #17 I.St. Romain caught at NEV27, for 4 yards to the NEV27 (#0 J.Scott), 1ST DOWNQ2 0:55 · 4th & 4 NEV 31 · +1.7 EPAQ2 0:55 · 4th & 4 NEV 31 · +1.7 EPA+.07 - 4

Robinson 41-yd punt return(11:36) #39 A.Bickerton punt 41 yards to the NEV34 #14 G.Robinson return 41 yards to the NDSU25 (#20 W.Steil)Q2 11:36 · 4th & 5 NDSU 25 · −2.5 NDSU EPAQ2 11:36 · 4th & 5 NDSU 25 · −2.5 NDSU EPA−.07 - 5

Bianco 15-yd TD run(14:20) Shotgun #10 A.Bianco rush right for 15 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:15, 1ST DOWN #81 T.Estes rush attempt SuccessfulQ2 14:20 · 3rd & 4 · 0–0 → 0–8 · +2.9 EPAQ2 14:20 · 0–0 → 0–8 · +2.9 EPA−.06
Player EPA
Total · game

Nathan Hayes · QB19/25 · 153 YDS · 2 TD · 42 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD+8.1
Mekhi Collins · WR2 REC · 33 YDS · 1 TD+6.9
Jaceon Doss · WR2 REC · 48 YDS+5.2
Gary Givens III · WR3 REC · 50 YDS · 1 TD−8.4
AJ Bianco · QB17/34 · 190 YDS · 1 TD · 2 INT · 23 RUSH YDS−11.7
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 286 | 345 |
| Plays | 57 | 70 |
| Yards / play | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| EPA / play | −0.28 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 30% | 41% |
| Explosive plays | 9 | 3 |
| Havoc rate | 10% | 14% |
| 3rd down | 6–14 | 6–15 |
| Pts / opportunity | 1.89 | 2.44 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Time of possession | 21:51 | 38:09 |
| Postgame WE | 14% | 86% |

