NMSUNew Mexico State
303-4 · 2-1 C-USAFINAL
SHSUSam Houston
241-6 · 0-3 C-USANMSU −3 COVEROVER 46.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP NMSU 43%→POSTGAME WE NMSU 63%
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 8,577- Postgame WE
- 63%NMSU · 10k sims
- How often this box score wins
- Offense EPA / play
- −0.16SHSU −0.39
- Success rate
- 39%SHSU 26%
- Turnovers
- 2–2≈ 4.0 pts swing
- vs model
- −6proj SHSU by 3.1
- Plays · pace
- 122proj 128 · 29.5s
Win probability · full game
NMSU LOW 30% · Q1 4:47 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.2Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|
- 1
Damante 27-yd TD to WilliamsAJ Williams III 27 Yd pass from Adam Damante (Kyah Francone Kick)Q2 0:24 · 1st & 10 · 7–10 → 14–10 · +4.2 EPAQ2 0:24 · 7–10 → 14–10 · +4.2 EPA+.22 - 2
Williams fumble, SAM recoversShotgun #11 A.Williams III rush left for 5 yards loss to the NMS20 fumbled by #11 A.Williams III at NMS18 recovered by SAM #13 R.Adams at NMS20, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Backwards pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #11 A.Williams III rush left for 5 yards loss to the NMS20 fumbled by #11 A.Williams III at NMS18 recovered by SAM #13 R.Adams at NMS20, End Of Play)Q2 8:28 · 2nd & 9 NMSU 25 · −4.7 NMSU EPAQ2 8:28 · 2nd & 9 NMSU 25 · −4.7 NMSU EPA−.21 - 3Brown fumble, NMS recoversNo Huddle-Shotgun #10 L.Brown rush left for 9 yards loss to the SAM32 lateral to #5 I.Atkins for 0 yards to the SAM32 fumbled by #5 I.Atkins at SAM32 recovered by NMS #13 K.Roberts-Day at SAM27, End Of PlayQ3 1:18 · 1st & 10 SHSU 41 · −6.3 SHSU EPAQ3 1:18 · 1st & 10 SHSU 41 · −6.3 SHSU EPA+.16
- 4Charles intercepts LockeNo Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Locke pass intercepted by #1 J.Charles at SAM26 QB hurried by #8 B.Vislisel #1 J.Charles return 25 yards to the SAM01 (#14 L.Deyon)Q2 10:13 · 1st & 10 SHSU 9 · −6.7 SHSU EPAQ2 10:13 · 1st & 10 SHSU 9 · −6.7 SHSU EPA+.16
- 5Locke 81-yd TD to BurnsTim Burns Jr. 81 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)Q3 14:40 · 1st & 10 · 14–10 → 14–17 · +6.2 EPAQ3 14:40 · 14–10 → 14–17 · +6.2 EPA−.15
Player EPA
Total · game
- Tim Burns Jr. · WR4 REC · 117 YDS · 1 TD+8.4
- Josiah Charles · CBINT · 3 TKL+6.6
- Railyn Adams · SINT · 3 TKL+4.3
- Ishmel Atkins · CB4 TKL · FUM−6.3
- Landyn Locke · QB18/31 · 235 YDS · 1 TD · 1 INT · 1 SACK−8.1
Play-by-play
Box score
| Stat | NMSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 363 | 246 |
| Plays | 71 | 53 |
| Yards / play | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| EPA / play | −0.16 | −0.39 |
| Success rate | 39% | 26% |
| Explosive plays | 8 | 4 |
| Havoc rate | 24% | 13% |
| 3rd down | 2–12 | 3–13 |
| Pts / opportunity | 3.00 | 1.70 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Time of possession | 34:34 | 25:26 |
| Postgame WE | 63% | 37% |