- Spread
- OU −5.5
- Open −5.5
- Total
- 43.5
- Open 43.5
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- OU −5.5
- open −5.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 43.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  South Carolina passvs Oklahoma pass Dvs OU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 83rd−0.04 | 13th−0.14 | 35 | OU +9.4 |
  Oklahoma runvs South Carolina run Dvs SC run D | 128th−0.11 | 29th−0.06 | 31 | SC +7.8 |
| South Carolina runvs Oklahoma run Dvs OU run D | 10th+0.11 | 21st−0.08 | 33 | SC +1.6 |
| Oklahoma passvs South Carolina pass Dvs SC pass D | 86th−0.05 | 99th+0.06 | 37 | OU +0.5 |
BIGGEST EDGE · OU +9.4
The Oklahoma pass defense vs South Carolina's passing game
South Carolina gains +0.08 EPA a play on the pass (83rd); Oklahoma allows −0.03 (13th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Oklahoma has the ball
- −0.06115thEPA / play62nd+0.04
- 40.6%86thSuccess rate64th41.9%
- 1.19132ndExplosiveness76th1.31
- −0.04128thRush EPA / play29th+0.01
- +0.0786thPass EPA / dropback99th+0.17
- 45.2%101stStandard downs SR58th46.6%
- 30.4%84thPassing downs SR105th32.7%
- 2.63134thLine yards23rd2.75
- 18.6%133rdHavoc rate72nd14.3%
- 3.67108thPoints / opportunity111th4.67
- 44%132ndRed zone TD rate87th64%
South Carolina's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (134th vs 23rd).
When South Carolina has the ball
- +0.1146thEPA / play12th−0.09
- 41.8%69thSuccess rate3rd35.1%
- 1.3816thExplosiveness97th1.33
- +0.1810thRush EPA / play21st−0.01
- +0.0883rdPass EPA / dropback13th−0.03
- 47.8%55thStandard downs SR2nd40.2%
- 30.0%90thPassing downs SR26th29.1%
- 3.4926thLine yards38th2.86
- 13.0%56thHavoc rate22nd17.1%
- 4.8537thPoints / opportunity16th3.12
- 70%39thRed zone TD rate16th46%
Oklahoma's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (16th vs 97th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | SCSC | OUOU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 26.8 | 25.9 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 71.7 | 62.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 48.5% | 60.1% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −1.5% | +5.4% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 46.5% | 57.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 30% | 15% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:20 | 30:05 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.5 | Own 27.2 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
SEC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 8 T-1 report5 OUT · 1 DOUBTFUL · 1 PROBABLE
Week 8 T-1 report7 OUT · 1 DOUBTFUL · 3 QUESTIONABLE
- OutTaylor Heim · LB
- OutTrell Harris · WR
- OutXavier Robinson · RB
- OutTrynae Washington · TE
- OutJacobe Johnson · DB
- OutEddy Pierre-Louis · OL
- OutRyan Fodje · OL
- DoubtfulElijah Thomas · WR
- QuestionableEli Bowen · DB
- QuestionableMichael Fasusi · OL
- QuestionableHeath Ozaeta · OL
Line movement
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread OU | −5.5 | −5.5 | — |
Total | 43.5 | 43.5 | — |
Moneyline OU | −198 | −198 | — |
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