rumorTom Green@tomasverde.bsky.social
1dUnconfirmed tip: Fasusi could be questionable against Mississippi State on Saturday.
Michael Fasusi · OLCHECKING
SEC · 3-3 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 2-4 · O/U 2-4
Oklahoma Sooners
HC Brent Venables (5th yr) · OC Ben Arbuckle · DC —
STARTS IN 12 PERSONNEL (3 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 93%
Power rating4.743rd
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins5.5of 12
Fan pulse−36▼3
SEC · 3-3 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 2-4 · O/U 2-4
Oklahoma
Sooners · HC Brent Venables (5th yr) · starts in 12 (3 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
Power rating4.743rd
CFP odds · outlook0%—NEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins5.5of 12
Fan pulse−36▼3
Oklahoma
3-3 · 1-2 SEC
POWER RATING4.743rd in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS5.5of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
3 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 1% · title 1%
FAN PULSE−36▼3
28 pts below the model ·Coverage →
Latest from the beat
OKLAHOMA · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →rumorTom Green@tomasverde.bsky.social
1dUnconfirmed tip: Ozaeta could be questionable against Mississippi State on Saturday.
Heath Ozaeta · OLCHECKING
rumorTom Green@tomasverde.bsky.social
1dUnconfirmed tip: Bowen could be questionable against Mississippi State on Saturday.
Eli Bowen · DBCHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   UTEPUTEP | W51–0 | −41−41 | W | +0.75 | 55% | 41% | 100% | 59 | 33.1 | |
| 2 |   at Michiganat Michigan | L10–17 | −5−5 | L | −0.19 | 34% | 28% | 30% | 62 | 24.6 | |
| 3 |   New MexicoNew Mexico | W14–6 | −21.5−21.5 | L | +0.28 | 38% | 22% | 66% | 55 | 25.3 | |
| 4 |   at Georgiaat Georgia | L13–41 | +11.5+11.5 | L | −0.53 | 30% | 38% | 9% | 68 | 32.3 | |
| 5 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 6 |   vs Texas · Dallasvs Texas | W27–24 | +7.5+7.5 | W | −0.17 | 36% | 37% | 56% | 56 | 17.5 | |
| 7 |   KentuckyKentucky | L13–21 | −7−7 | L | −0.12 | 40% | 39% | 32% | 72 | 27.2 | |
| 8 |   at Mississippi Stateat Mississippi StateNEXT | SAT 3:30 SEC NetworkSAT 3:30 | −2.5−2.5 | — | — | — | — | 39% | 132 | — | |
| 9 |   South CarolinaSouth Carolina | OCT 31OCT 31 | −3.1 proj−3.1 | 57% | |||||||
| 10 |   at Floridaat Florida | NOV 7NOV 7 | +6.4 proj+6.4 | 35% | |||||||
| 11 |   Ole MissOle Miss | NOV 14NOV 14 | +5.6 proj+5.6 | 37% | |||||||
| 12 |   Texas A&MTexas A&M | NOV 21NOV 21 | −1.2 proj−1.2 | 53% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Missouriat Missouri | NOV 28NOV 28 | +7.7 proj+7.7 | 32% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st50%n 2—n 037%n 13050%n 4
2nd60%n 1541%n 2739%n 4925%n 20
3rd69%n 1647%n 1717%n 248%n 13
4th67%n 3—n 050%n 2—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 320 OF 322 PLAYS320 OF 322 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun93% | 93% | 56% | −0.09 | 39% |
| Under center7% | 7% | 36% | −0.51 | 27% |
| No-huddle32% | 32% | 54% | +0.09 | 46% |
| Huddle68% | 68% | 54% | −0.21 | 35% |
StartersSTARTERS
123 of 6 games112 of 6BASE D4-2-55 of 6
123 of 64-2-5base D · 5 of 6
In shotgun on 93 % of tagged snaps, passing 56 % of the time (−0.09 EPA a play; −0.51 under center). No-huddle on 32 %. Starts in 12 personnel in 3 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (5 of 6).
Next game
SAT 3:30 SEC Network · DAVIS WADE STADIUMSAT 3:30 SEC Network
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Trell HarrisWR · SR
WR · top injuryNEXT UPM. ChoiceΔ −0.09 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−0.5IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.5 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC crews−0.3 to +0.6 · 28 games | +0.1 | −0.3 to +0.6 | 28 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews−0.6 to +0.4 · 24 games | −0.1 | −0.6 to +0.4 | 24 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 2 games | −0.5 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | −0.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 1 game | +0.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | −3.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTDerek Anderson−1.1 / g · 4 games · noise−1.1 / g · 4 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTMichael VanderVelde+1.8 / g · 3 games · noise+1.8 / g · 3 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Oklahoma than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Oklahoma than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #10 · SRJohn Mateer+0.05EPA/dropback · 105thCPOE+2.2aDOT8.5Sack %7.0%RB · #9 · JRLloyd Avant48.3%rush SR · 67thYards per carry4.5Explosive rate5.0%Rush EPA−0.05WR · #1 · SRIsaiah Sategna III2.35YPTPA · 40thTarget share32.3%EPA / target+0.16aDOT8.4DL · #44 · JRTaylor Wein7havoc plays · 47thTFL6Sacks1Forced fumbles1
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | OklahomaOU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | −0.06 | 113th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 40.6% | 85th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.19 | 131st | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | −0.04 | 128th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.07 | 87th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 30.5% | 84th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.63 | 134th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 7.4% | 113th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 33% | 120th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.67 | 108th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 44% | 132nd | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 27.5 | 55th | 28.0 |