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SAT 12:00 · ESPNU · TAMPA
UAB
4-34-3 · 2-1 American · ATS 3-3-1
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPNU
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa
WIN PROB
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South Florida
5-25-2 · 1-2 American · ATS 3-4
Spread
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
UAB passvs South Florida pass Dvs USF pass DBIGGEST EDGE
129th−0.1685th+0.0328USF +5.2
UAB runvs South Florida run Dvs USF run D
97th−0.0445th−0.0440USF +5.0
South Florida passvs UAB pass Dvs UAB pass D
76th−0.0249th−0.0432UAB +2.8
South Florida runvs UAB run Dvs UAB run D
68th+0.0196th+0.0536USF +2.8

BIGGEST EDGE · USF +5.2

The South Florida pass defense vs UAB's passing game

UAB gains −0.04 EPA a play on the pass (129th); South Florida allows +0.14 (85th). About 28 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseSouth Florida
USF OFF

When South Florida has the ball

DefenseUAB
UAB DEF
  • +0.0386thEPA / play68th+0.05
  • 43.1%56thSuccess rate99th44.4%
  • 1.19133rdExplosiveness4th1.18
  • +0.0768thRush EPA / play96th+0.12
  • +0.0976thPass EPA / dropback49th+0.07
  • 49.7%36thStandard downs SR114th50.3%
  • 31.1%65thPassing downs SR48th29.8%
  • 3.2072ndLine yards127th3.50
  • 11.8%36thHavoc rate101st12.9%
  • 5.2912thPoints / opportunity69th4.03
  • 74%22ndRed zone TD rate124th76%

South Florida's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (133rd vs 4th).

OffenseUAB
UAB OFF

When UAB has the ball

DefenseSouth Florida
USF DEF
  • −0.08126thEPA / play55th+0.03
  • 39.9%97thSuccess rate95th44.2%
  • 1.24114thExplosiveness23rd1.24
  • +0.0397thRush EPA / play45th+0.03
  • −0.04129thPass EPA / dropback85th+0.14
  • 44.9%108thStandard downs SR85th48.5%
  • 30.8%74thPassing downs SR91st31.9%
  • 3.2074thLine yards40th2.87
  • 16.2%120thHavoc rate88th13.4%
  • 3.56116thPoints / opportunity8th2.90
  • 33%136thRed zone TD rate4th35%

South Florida's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (136th vs 4th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, UAB and South Florida, season to date
MetricUABUABUSFUSFFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral30.930.128.9
Plays per gamePlays per game66.158.165.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral37.7%46.0%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−13.5%−6.5%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral31.8%44.7%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations20%18%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession30:5528:1030:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.6Own 31.6Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

AMERICAN AVAILABILITY · DUE ~SAT · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

UAB

AMERICAN REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetAMERICAN REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)
Week 7 game-day report6 OUT · 1 QUESTIONABLE

South Florida

AMERICAN REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetAMERICAN REPORT EXPECTED ~SAT (GD)
Week 6 game-day report9 OUT

Broadcast

ESPNU
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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mph
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Precip
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Surface
Grass
RefereeCrew TBA
RestUAB 16d · USF 14dBOTH OFF BYE