UAB
4-34-3 · 2-1 American · ATS 3-3-1
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPNU
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa
WIN PROB
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South Florida
5-25-2 · 1-2 American · ATS 3-4
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  UAB passvs South Florida pass Dvs USF pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 129th−0.16 | 85th+0.03 | 28 | USF +5.2 |
| UAB runvs South Florida run Dvs USF run D | 97th−0.04 | 45th−0.04 | 40 | USF +5.0 |
  South Florida passvs UAB pass Dvs UAB pass D | 76th−0.02 | 49th−0.04 | 32 | UAB +2.8 |
| South Florida runvs UAB run Dvs UAB run D | 68th+0.01 | 96th+0.05 | 36 | USF +2.8 |
BIGGEST EDGE · USF +5.2
The South Florida pass defense vs UAB's passing game
UAB gains −0.04 EPA a play on the pass (129th); South Florida allows +0.14 (85th). About 28 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseSouth Florida
USF OFFWhen South Florida has the ball
DefenseUAB
UAB DEF- +0.0386thEPA / play68th+0.05
- 43.1%56thSuccess rate99th44.4%
- 1.19133rdExplosiveness4th1.18
- +0.0768thRush EPA / play96th+0.12
- +0.0976thPass EPA / dropback49th+0.07
- 49.7%36thStandard downs SR114th50.3%
- 31.1%65thPassing downs SR48th29.8%
- 3.2072ndLine yards127th3.50
- 11.8%36thHavoc rate101st12.9%
- 5.2912thPoints / opportunity69th4.03
- +0.1252ndEarly-down EPA / play50th0.00
- 42.3%58th3rd-down conversion96th41.1%
- 17.0%90thStuff rate126th12.0%
- 5.5%87thSack rate37th7.0%
- 74%22ndRed zone TD rate124th76%
South Florida's offense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (133rd vs 4th).
OffenseUAB
UAB OFFWhen UAB has the ball
DefenseSouth Florida
USF DEF- −0.08126thEPA / play55th+0.03
- 39.9%97thSuccess rate95th44.2%
- 1.24114thExplosiveness23rd1.24
- +0.0397thRush EPA / play45th+0.03
- −0.04129thPass EPA / dropback85th+0.14
- 44.9%108thStandard downs SR85th48.5%
- 30.8%74thPassing downs SR91st31.9%
- 3.2074thLine yards40th2.87
- 16.2%120thHavoc rate88th13.4%
- 3.56116thPoints / opportunity8th2.90
- 0.00102ndEarly-down EPA / play59th+0.02
- 42.0%61st3rd-down conversion74th39.1%
- 15.5%70thStuff rate16th22.4%
- 10.4%135thSack rate82nd5.1%
- 33%136thRed zone TD rate4th35%
South Florida's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (136th vs 4th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | UABUAB | USFUSF | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 30.9 | 30.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 66.1 | 58.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 37.7% | 46.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −13.5% | −6.5% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 31.8% | 44.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 20% | 18% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:55 | 28:10 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.6 | Own 31.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%