Washington
4-34-3 · 1-3 Big Ten · ATS 2-5
8:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · BTN
Memorial Stadium · Lincoln
WIN PROB
—
Nebraska
5-25-2 · 2-2 Big Ten · ATS 6-1
- Spread
- NEB −9.5
- Open −9.5 · −115
- Total
- 48.5
- Open 48.5 · o −110
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- NEB −9.5
- open −9.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 48.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Washington passvs Nebraska pass Dvs NEB pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 82nd−0.04 | 4th−0.20 | 39 | NEB +13.6 |
| Washington runvs Nebraska run Dvs NEB run D | 105th−0.05 | 25th−0.07 | 29 | NEB +4.9 |
  Nebraska runvs Washington run Dvs UW run D | 35th+0.06 | 52nd−0.03 | 34 | NEB +1.2 |
| Nebraska passvs Washington pass Dvs UW pass D | 49th+0.04 | 56th−0.03 | 34 | NEB +0.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · NEB +13.6
The Nebraska pass defense vs Washington's passing game
Washington gains +0.08 EPA a play on the pass (82nd); Nebraska allows −0.09 (4th). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseNebraska
NEB OFFWhen Nebraska has the ball
DefenseWashington
UW DEF- +0.1429thEPA / play53rd+0.03
- 43.5%52ndSuccess rate71st42.2%
- 1.3625thExplosiveness63rd1.29
- +0.1335thRush EPA / play52nd+0.04
- +0.1549thPass EPA / dropback56th+0.09
- 47.0%70thStandard downs SR65th47.0%
- 33.9%25thPassing downs SR80th31.2%
- 3.1881stLine yards10th2.65
- 13.6%72ndHavoc rate20th17.2%
- 5.1617thPoints / opportunity85th4.19
- +0.1161stEarly-down EPA / play58th+0.02
- 51.6%15th3rd-down conversion55th36.5%
- 18.1%99thStuff rate6th26.2%
- 5.3%80thSack rate88th4.9%
- 80%9thRed zone TD rate77th63%
Nebraska's offense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (99th vs 6th).
OffenseWashington
UW OFFWhen Washington has the ball
DefenseNebraska
NEB DEF- +0.0196thEPA / play9th−0.11
- 42.4%62ndSuccess rate10th36.8%
- 1.2794thExplosiveness74th1.30
- +0.02105thRush EPA / play25th0.00
- +0.0882ndPass EPA / dropback4th−0.09
- 48.7%44thStandard downs SR31st45.1%
- 28.3%115thPassing downs SR2nd25.6%
- 2.96109thLine yards28th2.78
- 13.7%75thHavoc rate21st17.1%
- 4.4363rdPoints / opportunity7th2.89
- +0.0967thEarly-down EPA / play11th−0.15
- 34.6%104th3rd-down conversion1st17.1%
- 19.5%118thStuff rate31st19.8%
- 8.1%119thSack rate27th7.3%
- 65%67thRed zone TD rate6th40%
Nebraska's defense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (115th vs 2nd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | UWUW | NEBNEB | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 26.9 | 28.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 63.4 | 71.4 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 49.3% | 55.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −0.9% | +0.5% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 42.0% | 53.0% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 22% | 28% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:09 | 32:42 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.7 | Own 29.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%