BuffaloBUFF287-3 · 5-1 MAC
28FINAL
BUFF −1.5 COVERUNDER 52.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP BUFF 46%POSTGAME WE BUFF 90%
Scheumann Stadium · 6,745
Ball StateBALL73-7 · 2-4 MAC
7- Postgame WE
- 90%
- BUFF · 10k sims
- Offense EPA / play
- +0.09
- BALL −0.19
- Success rate
- 45%
- BALL 40%
- Turnovers
- 0–0
- —
- vs model
- −21
- proj BALL by 1.5
- Plays · pace
- 137
- proj 137 · 26.3s
How often this box score wins
Win probability · full game
BUFF LOW 23% · Q2 10:39 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.9Plays that decided it
Ranked by |win probability added|- 1
punt blocked by L. Collins
punt blocked by L. Collins (B. Boehm KICK)
−.22 - 2
Wright 14-yd TD to Morrow
(04:07) Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #6 C.Morrow caught at BSU00, for 14 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:04, 1ST DOWN #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever)
+.16 - 3
Thompson run, −1
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Thompson Jr. rush right for 1 yard loss to the UB22 (#6 M.Greer; #15 S.Vessah), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
+.14 - 4
Luster 11-yd pass to Hamilton
(02:43) Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short middle to #1 D.Hamilton caught at BSU37, for 11 yards to the BSU39 (#5 M.Crawford), 1ST DOWN
−.14 - 5
Boehm 47-yd FG no good
(05:02) #38 B.Boehm field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD (H: #32 C.Stumbaugh, LS: #45 C.Britton), clock 05:00, End Of Play
+.11