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FINAL · ESPN · RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM
Memphis
MemphisMEM528-2 · 5-1 American
52
FINAL
MEM −4.5 COVEROVER 51.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP MEM 52%POSTGAME WE MEM 70%

Raymond James Stadium

South Florida
South FloridaUSF416-4 · 2-4 American
41
Postgame WE
70%
MEM · 10k sims
Offense EPA / play
+0.44
USF +0.13
Success rate
47%
USF 44%
Turnovers
0–1
≈ 4.8 pts swing
vs model
+11
proj MEM by 1.0
Plays · pace
157
proj 128 · 22.9s

How often this box score wins

Win probability · full game

MEM LOW 29% · Q4 7:58 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 7.9

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Memphis

    Stokes 76-yd TD to Davis

    Jemyri Davis 76 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)

    Q4 7:34 · 2nd & 11 · 38–41 → 45–41 · +7.2 EPA
    Q4 7:34 · 38–41 → 45–41 · +7.2 EPA
    +.45
  2. 2South Florida

    Stokes incomplete to Tipton, turnover on downs

    (13:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short middle to #0 H.Tipton thrown to USF25 QB hurried by #0 G.Howard, TURNOVER ON DOWNS

    Q4 13:13 · 4th & 4 USF 32 · turnover on downs · −2.9 MEM EPA
    Q4 13:13 · 4th & 4 USF 32 · −2.9 MEM EPA
    −.24
  3. 3South Florida

    Kromenhoek 23-yd TD run

    (01:48) Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush middle for 23 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:42, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)

    Q3 1:48 · 2nd & 18 · 38–31 → 38–38 · +3.5 EPA
    Q3 1:48 · 38–31 → 38–38 · +3.5 EPA
    −.17
  4. 4Memphis

    Kromenhoek incomplete to Rodgers, turnover on downs

    (03:42) Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek pass incomplete short right to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to MEM00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS

    Q4 3:42 · 4th & 2 MEM 4 · turnover on downs · −3.2 USF EPA
    Q4 3:42 · 4th & 2 MEM 4 · −3.2 USF EPA
    +.16
  5. 5South Florida

    Kromenhoek 44-yd pass to Reuben

    (06:21) Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek pass complete short middle to #6 M.Reuben caught at USF45, for 44 yards to the MEM25 (#12 B.Mwamba), 1ST DOWN

    Q4 6:21 · 3rd & 4 USF 31 · +3.9 EPA
    Q4 6:21 · 3rd & 4 USF 31 · +3.9 EPA
    −.15

Player EPA

Total · game