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FINAL · CW · CLARENCE T.C. CHING ATHLETICS COMPLEX
North Dakota State
North Dakota StateNDSU218-2 · 5-2 Mountain West
21
FINAL
HAW +8.5 COVERUNDER 39.5MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP NDSU 76%POSTGAME WE NDSU 70%

Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

Hawai'i
Hawai'iHAW133-7 · 2-5 Mountain West
13
Postgame WE
70%
NDSU · 10k sims
Offense EPA / play
−0.16
HAW −0.35
Success rate
36%
HAW 32%
Turnovers
0–2
≈ 11.7 pts swing
vs model
+8
proj NDSU by 11.6
Plays · pace
129
proj 135 · 27.9s

How often this box score wins

Win probability · full game

NDSU LOW 31% · Q3 4:23 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 4.6

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Hawai'i

    Rice 15-yd TD run

    (00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Rice rush right for 15 yards gain to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:04, 1ST DOWN #98 S.Olvera-Harle kick attempt good (H: #47 G.Heil, LS: #33 J.Mowrey)

    Q2 0:04 · 4th & 1 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +4.9 EPA
    Q2 0:04 · 7–0 → 7–7 · +4.9 EPA
    −.24
  2. 2North Dakota State

    James 49-yd pick-six off Alejado

    (06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass intercepted by #25 R.James at Hawaii49 #25 R.James return 49 yards to the Hawaii00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:27 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)

    Q4 6:38 · 3rd & 4 · 14–13 → 21–13 · −8.1 HAW EPA
    Q4 6:38 · 14–13 → 21–13 · −8.1 HAW EPA
    +.24
  3. 3North Dakota State

    Scott 1-yd TD run

    (08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Hawaii00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:34 Timeout Hawai'i, clock 08:38 PENALTY NDSU False Start (#66 J.Liwienski) 5 yards from Hawaii03 to Hawaii08. NO PLAY #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)

    Q4 8:33 · 3rd & Goal · 7–13 → 14–13 · +1.4 EPA
    Q4 8:33 · 7–13 → 14–13 · +1.4 EPA
    +.20
  4. 4Hawai'i

    Alejado 14-yd pass to Mikaele

    (05:29) Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete short middle to #26 S.Mikaele caught at NDSU40, for 14 yards to the NDSU24 (#1 D.Woolen), 1ST DOWN

    Q3 5:29 · 3rd & 9 NDSU 38 · +3.0 EPA
    Q3 5:29 · 3rd & 9 NDSU 38 · +3.0 EPA
    −.14
  5. 5North Dakota State

    Hayes 11-yd pass to St. Romain

    (00:56) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #17 I.St. Romain caught at NDSU30, for 11 yards to the NDSU38 (#4 E.Palmer), 1ST DOWN

    Q3 0:56 · 3rd & 6 NDSU 27 · +2.4 EPA
    Q3 0:56 · 3rd & 6 NDSU 27 · +2.4 EPA
    +.13

Player EPA

Total · game