reportedArizona Daily Star Wildcats football@Justin Spears Arizona Daily Star
1dUnconfirmed tip: Richardson could be out against Iowa State on Saturday.
Gio RichardsonCHECKING
Big 12 · #25 AP · 5-1 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 2-4 · O/U 3-3
Arizona Wildcats
HC Brent Brennan (3rd yr) · OC Seth Doege · DC Danny Gonzales
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 6) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 98%
Power rating10.019th
CFP odds15%—
PLAYOFFIN→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.7of 12
Fan pulse—0 of 30 scored
Big 12 · #25 AP · 5-1 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 2-4 · O/U 3-3
Arizona
Wildcats · HC Brent Brennan (3rd yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 6) · base D 3-3-5
Power rating10.019th
CFP odds · outlook15%—IN→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.7of 12
Fan pulse—0 of 30 scored
Arizona
#25 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big 12
POWER RATING10.019th in FBS
CFP ODDS15%no change
PROJ. WINS8.7of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKIN→LONG SHOT
1 loss now · CFP 15% in sims · CCG 14% · title 5%
FAN PULSE—0 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
ARIZONA · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedArizona Daily Star Wildcats football@Justin Spears Arizona Daily Star
1dUnconfirmed tip: Hunter could be out against Iowa State on Saturday.
Chris Hunter III · WRCHECKING
reportedArizona Daily Star Wildcats football@Justin Spears Arizona Daily Star
1dUnconfirmed tip: Rusk could be out against Iowa State on Saturday.
Cole Rusk · TECHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Northern ArizonaNorthern Arizona | W35–7 | −32.5−32.5 | L | +0.68 | 67% | 15% | 93% | 71 | 27.6 | |
| 2 |   at BYUat BYU | L17–28 | +7+7 | L | −0.24 | 42% | 52% | 27% | 62 | 31.8 | |
| 3 |   Northern IllinoisNorthern Illinois | W42–17 | −34.5−34.5 | L | +0.43 | 54% | 40% | 91% | 62 | 27.5 | |
| 4 |   at Washington Stateat Washington State | W34–24 | −12−12 | L | +0.21 | 46% | 33% | 74% | 72 | 27.2 | |
| 5 |   CincinnatiCincinnati | W34–7 | −7−7 | W | +0.58 | 54% | 27% | 93% | 77 | 28.2 | |
| 6 |   at West Virginiaat West Virginia | W52–31 | −3.5−3.5 | W | +0.49 | 49% | 38% | 87% | 49 | 29.6 | |
| 7 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 8 |   Iowa StateIowa StateNEXT | SAT 7:30 ESPN2SAT 7:30 | −10.5−10.5 | — | — | — | — | 74% | 128 | — | |
| 9 |   at Texas Techat Texas Tech | OCT 31OCT 31 | +5.6 proj+5.6 | 37% | |||||||
| 10 |   TCUTCU | NOV 6NOV 6 | −6.5 proj−6.5 | 65% | |||||||
| 11 |   UtahUtah | NOV 14NOV 14 | +1 proj+1 | 48% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Kansas Stateat Kansas State | NOV 21NOV 21 | −4.8 proj−4.8 | 61% | |||||||
| 13 |   Arizona StateArizona State | NOV 28NOV 28 | −15.4 proj−15.4 | 83% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st50%n 233%n 348%n 14150%n 8
2nd77%n 2259%n 1753%n 4723%n 22
3rd72%n 1865%n 1747%n 1722%n 9
4th50%n 20%n 1—n 0—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 322 OF 326 PLAYS322 OF 326 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun98% | 98% | 56% | +0.24 | 50% |
| Under center2% | 2% | 17% | +0.03 | 83% |
| No-huddle40% | 40% | 58% | +0.30 | 59% |
| Huddle60% | 60% | 54% | +0.19 | 45% |
StartersSTARTERS
115 of 6 games101 of 6BASE D3-3-54 of 5
115 of 63-3-5base D · 4 of 5
In shotgun on 98 % of tagged snaps, passing 56 % of the time (+0.24 EPA a play; +0.03 under center). No-huddle on 40 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 6 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (4 of 5).
Next game
SAT 7:30 ESPN2 · ARIZONA STADIUMSAT 7:30 ESPN2
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Giovanni RichardsonWR · SO
WR · top injuryNEXT UPR. G. IIIΔ −0.28 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−1.5IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −1.5 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big 12 crews−0.5 to +0.4 · 29 games | −0.1 | −0.5 to +0.4 | 29 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews−0.5 to +0.5 · 23 games | 0.0 | −0.5 to +0.5 | 23 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 3 games | +0.9 | — | 3 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTDavid Alvarez−2.8 / g · 3 games · noise−2.8 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTCravonne Barrett+1.6 / g · 4 games · noise+1.6 / g · 4 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Arizona than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Arizona than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #1 · RS-SRNoah Fifita+0.40EPA/dropback · 18thCPOE+11.6aDOT8.7Sack %7.4%RB · #3 · SRKedrick Reescano37.5%rush SR · 192ndYards per carry3.6Explosive rate6.9%Rush EPA0.00WR · #12 · RS-SRTre Spivey1.56YPTPA · 150thTarget share14.9%EPA / target+1.06aDOT11.2DL · #42 · RS-SRDominic Lolesio4havoc plays · 199thTFL3Sacks1Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | ArizonaARIZ | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.17 | 22nd | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.8% | 18th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.31 | 53rd | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.08 | 65th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.25 | 17th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 36.4% | 6th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.36 | 46th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 7.6% | 114th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 54% | 7th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.97 | 28th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 75% | 15th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 28.9 | 86th | 28.0 |