- Spread
- TTU −7
- Open −7.5
- Total
- 54
- Open 52.5
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- TTU −7
- open −7.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 54
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arizona runvs Texas Tech run Dvs TTU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 65th+0.01 | 15th−0.10 | 30 | TTU +4.1 |
  Texas Tech passvs Arizona pass Dvs ARIZ pass D | 67th0.00 | 50th−0.04 | 33 | ARIZ +1.7 |
| Texas Tech runvs Arizona run Dvs ARIZ run D | 51st+0.03 | 31st−0.06 | 35 | ARIZ +1.7 |
| Arizona passvs Texas Tech pass Dvs TTU pass D | 17th+0.13 | 15th−0.14 | 38 | TTU +0.4 |
BIGGEST EDGE · TTU +4.1
The Texas Tech run defense vs Arizona's run game
Arizona gains +0.08 EPA a play on the run (65th); Texas Tech allows −0.03 (15th). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Texas Tech has the ball
- +0.1048thEPA / play30th−0.02
- 46.2%28thSuccess rate27th38.7%
- 1.25105thExplosiveness119th1.36
- +0.1051stRush EPA / play31st+0.01
- +0.1267thPass EPA / dropback50th+0.08
- 49.6%38thStandard downs SR12th42.7%
- 34.2%21stPassing downs SR88th31.8%
- 3.2270thLine yards41st2.87
- 16.7%123rdHavoc rate77th14.1%
- 4.5559thPoints / opportunity18th3.16
- 55%104thRed zone TD rate47th53%
Arizona's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (21st vs 88th).
When Arizona has the ball
- +0.1722ndEPA / play17th−0.07
- 46.8%18thSuccess rate21st38.3%
- 1.3153rdExplosiveness101st1.33
- +0.0865thRush EPA / play15th−0.03
- +0.2517thPass EPA / dropback15th−0.03
- 49.8%34thStandard downs SR20th43.4%
- 36.4%6thPassing downs SR61st30.5%
- 3.3646thLine yards25th2.76
- 13.5%69thHavoc rate25th17.1%
- 4.9728thPoints / opportunity9th2.91
- 75%15thRed zone TD rate12th45%
Texas Tech's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (6th vs 61st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ARIZARIZ | TTUTTU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.8 | 25.9 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 65.5 | 66.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 59.3% | 51.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +8.6% | +0.3% | −2.0% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 55.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 18% | 22% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 31:41 | 28:14 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.7 | Own 33.2 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
BIG 12 AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 8 T-1 report7 OUT
Week 8 T-1 report6 OUT · 1 QUESTIONABLE · 1 PROBABLE
- OutJalen Jones · WR
- OutCameron Dickey · RB
- OutDonte Lee Jr. · WR
- OutS'Vioarean Martin · CB
- OutHunter Zambrano · OL
- OutElias Gillen · OL
- QuestionablePeyton Morgan · S
- ProbableMaddox Quiller · S
Line movement
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread TTU | −7.5 | −7 | — |
Total | 52.5 | 54.0 | — |
Moneyline TTU | −255 | −255 | — |
Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
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