Arizona
#25 · 5-1#25 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big 12 · ATS 2-4
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31
Jones AT&T Stadium · Lubbock
WIN PROB
—
Texas Tech
#8 · 6-0#8 · 6-0 · 3-0 Big 12 · ATS 3-3
- Spread
- TTU −7
- Open −7.5
- Total
- 54
- Open 52.5
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- TTU −7
- open −7.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 54
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arizona runvs Texas Tech run Dvs TTU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 66th+0.01 | 15th−0.10 | 30 | TTU +4.1 |
  Texas Tech passvs Arizona pass Dvs ARIZ pass D | 67th0.00 | 50th−0.04 | 33 | ARIZ +1.7 |
| Texas Tech runvs Arizona run Dvs ARIZ run D | 50th+0.03 | 31st−0.06 | 35 | ARIZ +1.7 |
| Arizona passvs Texas Tech pass Dvs TTU pass D | 17th+0.13 | 15th−0.14 | 38 | TTU +0.4 |
BIGGEST EDGE · TTU +4.1
The Texas Tech run defense vs Arizona's run game
Arizona gains +0.08 EPA a play on the run (66th); Texas Tech allows −0.03 (15th). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseTexas Tech
TTU OFFWhen Texas Tech has the ball
DefenseArizona
ARIZ DEF- +0.1049thEPA / play29th−0.02
- 46.2%28thSuccess rate27th38.7%
- 1.25106thExplosiveness118th1.36
- +0.1050thRush EPA / play31st+0.01
- +0.1267thPass EPA / dropback50th+0.08
- 49.6%38thStandard downs SR12th42.7%
- 34.1%21stPassing downs SR89th31.8%
- 3.2270thLine yards41st2.87
- 16.7%123rdHavoc rate76th14.1%
- 4.5559thPoints / opportunity18th3.16
- +0.1254thEarly-down EPA / play17th−0.12
- 44.4%38th3rd-down conversion98th41.3%
- 18.0%98thStuff rate28th20.0%
- 4.1%45thSack rate39th6.9%
- 55%104thRed zone TD rate46th53%
Arizona's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (98th vs 28th).
OffenseArizona
ARIZ OFFWhen Arizona has the ball
DefenseTexas Tech
TTU DEF- +0.1722ndEPA / play17th−0.07
- 46.8%18thSuccess rate21st38.2%
- 1.3153rdExplosiveness102nd1.33
- +0.0866thRush EPA / play15th−0.03
- +0.2517thPass EPA / dropback15th−0.03
- 49.8%35thStandard downs SR20th43.4%
- 36.4%6thPassing downs SR62nd30.4%
- 3.3645thLine yards25th2.76
- 13.5%69thHavoc rate25th17.1%
- 4.9727thPoints / opportunity9th2.91
- +0.2220thEarly-down EPA / play21st−0.11
- 54.1%7th3rd-down conversion56th36.5%
- 16.2%79thStuff rate32nd19.7%
- 7.6%113thSack rate67th5.7%
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate12th45%
Texas Tech's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (6th vs 62nd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ARIZARIZ | TTUTTU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.8 | 25.9 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 65.5 | 66.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 59.3% | 51.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +8.6% | +0.3% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 55.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 18% | 22% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 31:41 | 28:14 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.7 | Own 33.2 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%