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2026 · THROUGH WK 8

Pac-12 · 2-4 · 0-2 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 6-0

Colorado State Rams

HC Jim Mora (1st yr) · OC Pryce Tracy · DC —

STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (2 OF 5) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 97%

Power rating−9.8124th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→OUT
Proj. wins3.6of 11
Fan pulse—0 of 30 scored

Pac-12 · 2-4 · 0-2 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 6-0

Colorado State

Rams · HC Jim Mora (1st yr) · starts in 11 (2 of 5) · base D 3-3-5

Power rating−9.8124th
CFP odds · outlook0%—NEEDS TITLE→OUT
Proj. wins3.6of 11
Fan pulse—0 of 30 scored

Colorado State

2-4 · 0-2 Pac-12

POWER RATING−9.8124th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS3.6of 11 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→OUT

4 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%

FAN PULSE—0 of 30 scored

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Latest from the beat

COLORADO STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H

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Schedule & resultsSchedule

POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED

Colorado State schedule and results
Wk
Opponent
Result
Line
ATS
Net EPA
Off SR
Def SR
Win prob
Plays
s/play
1WyomingWyomingW35–13−3−3W+0.4449%44%93%6526.2
2Southern UtahSouthern UtahW58–24−20−20W+0.5952%33%94%6724.8
3BYUBYUL23–41+17.5+17.5L−0.8333%73%8%6525.1
4at UTSAat UTSAL45–59+14.5+14.5W−0.2040%51%26%7820.1
5Oregon StateOregon StateL26–56+7+7L−0.5853%76%6%6529.3
6BYE
7at Texas Stateat Texas StateL27–66+15.5+15.5L−0.5742%67%6%7027.9
8San Diego StateSan Diego StateNEXTSAT 6:30 CWSAT 6:30+1.5+1.5————51%128—
9at Utah Stateat Utah StateOCT 31OCT 31+5.4 proj+5.437%
10Boise StateBoise StateNOV 7NOV 7+16.5 proj+16.516%
11at Washington Stateat Washington StateNOV 14NOV 14+6.2 proj+6.235%
12at Fresno Stateat Fresno StateNOV 21NOV 21+11.7 proj+11.724%

Success rate by down & distance

1st80%n 533%n 345%n 11814%n 7
2nd50%n 1833%n 2147%n 4544%n 18
3rd64%n 2533%n 1539%n 1818%n 11
4th60%n 1050%n 2100%n 1—n 0

Formation & personnelFormation

PBP TAGS · 315 OF 317 PLAYS315 OF 317 PLAYS TAGGED

Formation splits
LookLook · usage
Usage
Pass %Pass
EPA/playEPA
SR
Shotgun97%97%58%+0.2344%
Under center3%3%20%+1.1550%
No-huddle86%86%57%+0.1743%
Huddle14%14%52%+0.7852%
StartersSTARTERS
112 of 5 games122 of 5BASE D3-3-56 of 6
112 of 53-3-5base D · 6 of 6

In shotgun on 97 % of tagged snaps, passing 58 % of the time (+0.23 EPA a play; +1.15 under center). No-huddle on 86 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 2 of 5 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (6 of 6).

Next game

SAT 6:30 CW · CANVAS STADIUMSAT 6:30 CW

vs San Diego StateLINE+1.5MODEL−0.3WP51%

TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT

Q
RJ VickWR · SR
WR · top injury
NEXT UPJ. HarperΔ −0.19 EPA/play
79%TO PLAY
−0.3IMPACT PTS

% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported

LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.3 PTS

Refs

JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026

Judgment flags over expected by crew conference
Crews from
FOE / G
90% range
Games
Read
Mountain West crews−0.3 to +0.5 · 36 games+0.1−0.3 to +0.536NOISE
Pac-12 crews— · 7 games+1.7—7NOISE
Big 12 crews— · 4 games−1.5—4NOISE
American crews— · 2 games0.0—2NOISE
C-USA crews— · 2 games−1.1—2NOISE
Big Ten crews— · 1 game−4.1—1NOISE
MAC crews— · 1 game−3.9—1NOISE
SEC crews— · 1 game−1.5—1NOISE
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTNolan Dumas−2.6 / g · 4 games · noise−2.6 / g · 4 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTCal McNeill+1.4 / g · 5 games · noise+1.4 / g · 5 g · noise

+ = more judgment flags on Colorado State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Colorado State than expected · no lean before 8 games

Key players

Unit statsEfficiency

OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED

Colorado State offense statistics
MetricStat
Colorado StateCSU
RankRK
FBS avgVS FBS
EPA / play+0.1528th+0.06
Success rate42.2%63rd42.3%
Explosiveness1.423rd1.30
Rush EPA / play+0.1144th+0.07
Pass EPA / play+0.1840th+0.11
Passing downs SR34.1%22nd31.1%
Line yards2.97104th3.21
Sack rate allowed1.7%9th5.3%
3rd-down conversion43%50th41%
Points / opportunity5.585th4.27
Red zone TD rate88%4th63%
Seconds / play26.237th28.0