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SAT 3:30 · USA NETWORK · LOGAN
Colorado State
2-42-4 · 0-2 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · USA Network
Maverik Stadium · Logan
WIN PROB
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Utah State
2-42-4 · 1-1 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Utah State runvs Colorado State run Dvs CSU run DBIGGEST EDGE
125th−0.10138th+0.1932USU +4.2
Colorado State passvs Utah State pass Dvs USU pass D
39th+0.0660th−0.0238CSU +2.5
Colorado State runvs Utah State run Dvs USU run D
43rd+0.0465th−0.0130CSU +1.4
Utah State passvs Colorado State pass Dvs CSU pass D
136th−0.22138th+0.2436USU +1.1

BIGGEST EDGE · USU +4.2

Utah State's run game vs the Colorado State run defense

Utah State gains −0.03 EPA a play on the run (125th); Colorado State allows +0.26 (138th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseUtah State
USU OFF

When Utah State has the ball

DefenseColorado State
CSU DEF
  • −0.13135thEPA / play138th+0.32
  • 35.0%134thSuccess rate138th52.7%
  • 1.3063rdExplosiveness101st1.33
  • −0.03125thRush EPA / play138th+0.26
  • −0.11136thPass EPA / dropback138th+0.36
  • 39.4%137thStandard downs SR138th55.9%
  • 29.7%94thPassing downs SR133rd35.8%
  • 3.00101stLine yards138th3.96
  • 17.9%131stHavoc rate130th11.0%
  • 2.32138thPoints / opportunity136th5.59
  • 50%119thRed zone TD rate136th88%

Utah State's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (94th vs 133rd).

OffenseColorado State
CSU OFF

When Colorado State has the ball

DefenseUtah State
USU DEF
  • +0.1527thEPA / play44th+0.02
  • 42.2%65thSuccess rate46th40.6%
  • 1.423rdExplosiveness39th1.27
  • +0.1143rdRush EPA / play65th+0.06
  • +0.1839thPass EPA / dropback60th+0.10
  • 45.3%98thStandard downs SR61st46.7%
  • 34.0%23rdPassing downs SR41st29.6%
  • 2.97105thLine yards47th2.89
  • 12.3%42ndHavoc rate102nd12.9%
  • 5.585thPoints / opportunity45th3.69
  • 88%4thRed zone TD rate28th50%

Colorado State's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (42nd vs 102nd).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Colorado State and Utah State, season to date
MetricCSUCSUUSUUSUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral29.924.128.9
Plays per gamePlays per game68.362.065.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral50.0%49.7%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+7.7%−3.0%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral48.5%51.8%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations38%23%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession27:4725:4730:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.6Own 31.2Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

PAC-12 AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Colorado State

PAC-12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetPAC-12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report5 OUT · 1 DOUBTFUL · 1 QUESTIONABLE · 1 PROBABLE

Utah State

PAC-12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetPAC-12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report3 OUT FOR SEASON · 6 OUT · 2 QUESTIONABLE · 2 PROBABLE

Broadcast

USA Network
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Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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RefereeCrew TBA
RestCSU 16d · USU 22dBOTH OFF BYE