Colorado State
2-42-4 · 0-2 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · USA Network
Maverik Stadium · Logan
WIN PROB
—
Utah State
2-42-4 · 1-1 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- —
- Model
- —
- Total
- —
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Utah State runvs Colorado State run Dvs CSU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 125th−0.10 | 138th+0.19 | 32 | USU +4.2 |
  Colorado State passvs Utah State pass Dvs USU pass D | 39th+0.06 | 60th−0.02 | 38 | CSU +2.5 |
| Colorado State runvs Utah State run Dvs USU run D | 43rd+0.04 | 65th−0.01 | 30 | CSU +1.4 |
| Utah State passvs Colorado State pass Dvs CSU pass D | 136th−0.22 | 138th+0.24 | 36 | USU +1.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · USU +4.2
Utah State's run game vs the Colorado State run defense
Utah State gains −0.03 EPA a play on the run (125th); Colorado State allows +0.26 (138th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseUtah State
USU OFFWhen Utah State has the ball
DefenseColorado State
CSU DEF- −0.13135thEPA / play138th+0.32
- 35.0%134thSuccess rate138th52.7%
- 1.3063rdExplosiveness101st1.33
- −0.03125thRush EPA / play138th+0.26
- −0.11136thPass EPA / dropback138th+0.36
- 39.4%137thStandard downs SR138th55.9%
- 29.7%94thPassing downs SR133rd35.8%
- 3.00101stLine yards138th3.96
- 17.9%131stHavoc rate130th11.0%
- 2.32138thPoints / opportunity136th5.59
- −0.17135thEarly-down EPA / play138th+0.41
- 37.7%92nd3rd-down conversion137th54.2%
- 21.0%123rdStuff rate137th8.5%
- 9.0%129thSack rate122nd3.1%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate136th88%
Utah State's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (92nd vs 137th).
OffenseColorado State
CSU OFFWhen Colorado State has the ball
DefenseUtah State
USU DEF- +0.1527thEPA / play44th+0.02
- 42.2%65thSuccess rate46th40.6%
- 1.423rdExplosiveness39th1.27
- +0.1143rdRush EPA / play65th+0.06
- +0.1839thPass EPA / dropback60th+0.10
- 45.3%98thStandard downs SR61st46.7%
- 34.0%23rdPassing downs SR41st29.6%
- 2.97105thLine yards47th2.89
- 12.3%42ndHavoc rate102nd12.9%
- 5.585thPoints / opportunity45th3.69
- +0.2025thEarly-down EPA / play35th−0.03
- 43.5%49th3rd-down conversion80th39.8%
- 17.5%95thStuff rate49th18.1%
- 1.7%9thSack rate110th4.1%
- 88%4thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Colorado State's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (9th vs 110th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | CSUCSU | USUUSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.9 | 24.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 68.3 | 62.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 50.0% | 49.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +7.7% | −3.0% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 48.5% | 51.8% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 38% | 23% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 27:47 | 25:47 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.6 | Own 31.2 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%