reportedIowa State Daily sports desk@Jackson Werts and Jeorgia Neumann
1dUnconfirmed tip on Raynor’s status against Arizona on Saturday.
Jaylen Raynor · QBCHECKING
Big 12 · 3-3 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 2-3 · O/U 3-3
Iowa State Cyclones
HC Jimmy Rogers (1st yr) · OC Tyler Roehl · DC Jesse Bobbit
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (2 OF 2) · BASE D 4-3-4 · SHOTGUN 78%
Power rating1.957th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins5.7of 12
Fan pulse—4 of 30 scored
Big 12 · 3-3 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 2-3 · O/U 3-3
Iowa State
Cyclones · HC Jimmy Rogers (1st yr) · starts in 11 (2 of 2) · base D 4-3-4
Power rating1.957th
CFP odds · outlook0%—NEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins5.7of 12
Fan pulse—4 of 30 scored
Iowa State
3-3 · 1-2 Big 12
POWER RATING1.957th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS5.7of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
3 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%
FAN PULSE—4 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
IOWA STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Southeast Missouri StateSoutheast Missouri State | W38–10 | −29.5−29.5 | L | +0.62 | 38% | 24% | 97% | 48 | 30.0 | |
| 2 |   at Iowaat Iowa | L13–16 | +14+14 | W | −0.07 | 30% | 39% | 38% | 53 | 32.6 | |
| 3 |   Bowling GreenBowling Green | W55–7 | −23−23 | W | +0.79 | 59% | 32% | 100% | 63 | 32.8 | |
| 4 |   UtahUtah | L17–31 | +7.5+7.5 | L | −0.38 | 36% | 53% | 18% | 76 | 26.1 | |
| 5 |   West VirginiaWest Virginia | W45–42 | −3−3 | P | −0.01 | 51% | 43% | 66% | 75 | 31.4 | |
| 6 |   at BYUat BYU | L10–24 | +11.5+11.5 | L | −0.37 | 28% | 51% | 18% | 57 | 26.0 | |
| 7 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 8 |   at Arizonaat ArizonaNEXT | SAT 7:30 ESPN2SAT 7:30 | +10.5+10.5 | — | — | — | — | 26% | 128 | — | |
| 9 |   Oklahoma StateOklahoma State | OCT 31OCT 31 | −2.7 proj−2.7 | 57% | |||||||
| 10 |   at Baylorat Baylor | NOV 7NOV 7 | +6 proj+6 | 36% | |||||||
| 11 |   CincinnatiCincinnati | NOV 14NOV 14 | −3 proj−3 | 57% | |||||||
| 12 |   at UCFat UCF | NOV 20NOV 20 | +3.8 proj+3.8 | 41% | |||||||
| 13 |   Kansas StateKansas State | NOV 28NOV 28 | −1 proj−1 | 52% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st25%n 4—n 039%n 1400%n 8
2nd71%n 1470%n 2043%n 5830%n 20
3rd59%n 1746%n 1317%n 186%n 16
4th33%n 6—n 0—n 025%n 4
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 336 OF 338 PLAYS336 OF 338 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun78% | 78% | 54% | +0.03 | 39% |
| Under center22% | 22% | 16% | +0.23 | 41% |
| No-huddle33% | 33% | 41% | +0.12 | 46% |
| Huddle67% | 67% | 48% | +0.05 | 36% |
StartersSTARTERS
112 of 2 gamesBASE D4-3-45 of 5
112 of 24-3-4base D · 5 of 5
In shotgun on 78 % of tagged snaps, passing 54 % of the time (+0.03 EPA a play; +0.23 under center). No-huddle on 33 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 2 of 2 games. Base defense 4-3-4 (5 of 5).
Next game
SAT 7:30 ESPN2 · ARIZONA STADIUMSAT 7:30 ESPN2
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Caden CrawfordEDGE · SR
EDGE · top injuryNEXT UPM. Ta'ase
0%TO PLAY
−0.2IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.2 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big 12 crews−0.5 to +0.3 · 50 games | −0.1 | −0.5 to +0.3 | 50 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 2 games | 0.0 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 2 games | +2.6 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 1 game | +1.1 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | −0.1 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTDavid Alvarez−1.8 / g · 5 games · noise−1.8 / g · 5 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTMichael VanderVelde+1.3 / g · 4 games · noise+1.3 / g · 4 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Iowa State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Iowa State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #1 · SRJaylen Raynor+0.01EPA/dropback · 114thCPOE−4.7aDOT8.4Sack %5.1%RB · #21 · RS-SOAiden Flora48.9%rush SR · 59thYards per carry7.6Explosive rate17.8%Rush EPA+0.29WR · #9 · RS-SROmari Hayes1.37YPTPA · 195thTarget share18.2%EPA / target+0.48aDOT7.5EDGE · #88 · SRIsaac Terrell3havoc plays · 312thTFL2Sacks2Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Iowa StateISU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.04 | 74th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 39.5% | 103rd | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.32 | 45th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.05 | 84th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.07 | 89th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 29.5% | 100th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.97 | 105th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 4.6% | 55th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 31% | 129th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 5.00 | 23rd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 73% | 23rd | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 29.1 | 88th | 28.0 |