reportedThe Daily Mississippian football@Reagan-taylor
3hUnconfirmed tip: Sanders could play against Texas on Saturday.
Brycen Sanders · OLCHECKING
SEC · #7 AP · 5-1 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 3-3
Ole Miss Rebels
HC Pete Golding (1st yr) · OC John David Baker · DC Bryan Brown
STARTS IN 12 PERSONNEL (5 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 99%
Power rating12.612th
CFP odds28%—
PLAYOFFIN→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.9of 12
Fan pulse—3 of 30 scored
SEC · #7 AP · 5-1 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 3-3
Ole Miss
Rebels · HC Pete Golding (1st yr) · starts in 12 (5 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
Power rating12.612th
CFP odds · outlook28%—IN→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.9of 12
Fan pulse—3 of 30 scored
Ole Miss
#7 · 5-1 · 3-1 SEC
POWER RATING12.612th in FBS
CFP ODDS28%no change
PROJ. WINS8.9of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKIN→LONG SHOT
1 loss now · CFP 28% in sims · CCG 32% · title 16%
FAN PULSE—3 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
OLE MISS · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedThe Daily Mississippian football@Reagan-taylor
3hUnconfirmed tip: Davis could be questionable against Texas on Saturday.
Terez Davis · OLCHECKING
reportedThe Daily Mississippian football@Wilson-engeriser
2dUnconfirmed tip on Lacy’s status against Texas on Saturday.
Kewan Lacy · RBUNCONFIRMED
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   vs Louisville · Nashvillevs Louisville | W41–38 | −6.5−6.5 | L | +0.09 | 45% | 44% | 58% | 77 | 21.8 | |
| 2 |   CharlotteCharlotte | W41–9 | −44.5−44.5 | L | +0.49 | 64% | 40% | 99% | 58 | 25.3 | |
| 3 |   LSULSU | W32–24 | +3+3 | W | +0.13 | 45% | 43% | 65% | 71 | 24.3 | |
| 4 |   at Floridaat Florida | L28–52 | +4+4 | L | −0.34 | 54% | 61% | 3% | 61 | 22.7 | |
| 5 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 6 |   at Vanderbiltat Vanderbilt | W52–17 | −9.5−9.5 | W | +0.65 | 62% | 31% | 88% | 65 | 22.9 | |
| 7 |   MissouriMissouri | W31–3 | −4−4 | W | +0.45 | 48% | 31% | 95% | 73 | 25.0 | |
| 8 |   at Texasat TexasNEXT | SAT 7:30 ABCSAT 7:30 | +3+3 | — | — | — | — | 47% | 134 | — | |
| 9 |   AuburnAuburn | OCT 31OCT 31 | −8.8 proj−8.8 | 70% | |||||||
| 10 |   GeorgiaGeorgia | NOV 7NOV 7 | +2.1 proj+2.1 | 45% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Oklahomaat Oklahoma | NOV 14NOV 14 | −5.6 proj−5.6 | 63% | |||||||
| 12 |   WoffordWofford | NOV 21NOV 21 | −29.4 proj−29.4 | 96% | |||||||
| 13 |   Mississippi StateMississippi State | NOV 27NOV 27 | −8.7 proj−8.7 | 70% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st75%n 4100%n 348%n 15350%n 6
2nd72%n 1869%n 3245%n 5536%n 14
3rd72%n 1852%n 2133%n 1218%n 11
4th60%n 5—n 0—n 0—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 348 OF 352 PLAYS348 OF 352 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun99% | 99% | 57% | +0.24 | 51% |
| Under center1% | 1% | 0% | −0.20 | 0% |
| No-huddle76% | 76% | 58% | +0.28 | 51% |
| Huddle24% | 24% | 54% | +0.10 | 50% |
StartersSTARTERS
125 of 6 games111 of 6BASE D4-2-56 of 6
125 of 64-2-5base D · 6 of 6
In shotgun on 99 % of tagged snaps, passing 57 % of the time (+0.24 EPA a play; −0.20 under center). No-huddle on 76 %. Starts in 12 personnel in 5 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (6 of 6).
Next game
SAT 7:30 ABC · DKR-TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUMSAT 7:30 ABC
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Edwin JosephS · JR
S · top injuryNEXT UPN. Cull
0%TO PLAY
−0.3IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.3 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC crews−0.4 to +0.4 · 48 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.4 | 48 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 3 games | +0.9 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 3 games | −0.4 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | −2.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | −0.5 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | −2.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | +0.6 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTDaniel Gautreaux−1.5 / g · 3 games · noise−1.5 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTKen Williamson+1.2 / g · 7 games · noise+1.2 / g · 7 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Ole Miss than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Ole Miss than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #6 · SRTrinidad Chambliss+0.39EPA/dropback · 21stCPOE+4.7aDOT9.1Sack %1.9%RB · #5 · JRKewan Lacy52.5%rush SR · 27thYards per carry5.7Explosive rate13.1%Rush EPA+0.29WR · #1 · JRDeuce Alexander2.40YPTPA · 34thTarget share22.6%EPA / target+0.67aDOT10.3EDGE · #3 · JRBlake Purchase7havoc plays · 47thTFL6Sacks3.5Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Ole MissMISS | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.26 | 5th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 50.3% | 3rd | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.27 | 88th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.18 | 8th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.33 | 8th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 35.5% | 9th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.70 | 7th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 1.5% | 7th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 50% | 18th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 5.35 | 9th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 91% | 1st | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 23.6 | 7th | 28.0 |