Ole Miss
#7 · 5-1#7 · 5-1 · 3-1 SEC · ATS 3-3
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ABC
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin
WIN PROB
53%
TEX
Texas
#19 · 4-2#19 · 4-2 · 1-2 SEC · ATS 1-5
- Spread
- TEX −3
- Open −3.5 · −114
- Total
- 54
- Open 53 · o −110
- Model line
- TEX −1.1+1.9
- Model total 54.1
- Win probability
- 53%
- Projected score
- 26.5 – 27.6
- MISS – TEX
- Projected plays
- 134
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- TEX −3
- open −3.5
- Model
- −1.1+1.9
- TEX
- Total
- 54
- model 54.1
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Texas runvs Ole Miss run Dvs MISS run DBIGGEST EDGE | 109th−0.06 | 57th−0.02 | 34 | MISS +4.0 |
  Ole Miss passvs Texas pass Dvs TEX pass D | 8th+0.21 | 10th−0.15 | 38 | MISS +3.3 |
| Texas passvs Ole Miss pass Dvs MISS pass D | 60th+0.01 | 77th+0.02 | 33 | TEX +1.2 |
PaceMISS 23.9 s · TEX 28.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays134 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 134 | O 1.1 |
| Ole Miss runvs Texas run Dvs TEX run D | 8th+0.11 | 11th−0.10 | 29 | MISS +0.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MISS +4.0
The Ole Miss run defense vs Texas's run game
Texas gains +0.01 EPA a play on the run (109th); Ole Miss allows +0.05 (57th). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseTexas
TEX OFFWhen Texas has the ball
DefenseOle Miss
MISS DEF- +0.0570thEPA / play69th+0.05
- 44.3%41stSuccess rate73rd42.4%
- 1.25109thExplosiveness44th1.27
- +0.01109thRush EPA / play57th+0.05
- +0.1360thPass EPA / dropback77th+0.13
- 48.7%42ndStandard downs SR91st49.0%
- 32.3%42ndPassing downs SR36th29.5%
- 2.97106thLine yards58th3.01
- 17.0%125thHavoc rate78th14.1%
- 4.8636thPoints / opportunity50th3.71
- 62%78thRed zone TD rate25th47%
Ole Miss's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (109th vs 44th).
OffenseOle Miss
MISS OFFWhen Ole Miss has the ball
DefenseTexas
TEX DEF- +0.265thEPA / play4th−0.12
- 50.3%3rdSuccess rate2nd34.8%
- 1.2788thExplosiveness28th1.24
- +0.188thRush EPA / play11th−0.03
- +0.338thPass EPA / dropback10th−0.04
- 53.8%5thStandard downs SR11th42.2%
- 35.5%9thPassing downs SR3rd26.0%
- 3.707thLine yards35th2.81
- 9.4%12thHavoc rate18th17.7%
- 5.359thPoints / opportunity20th3.19
- 91%1stRed zone TD rate22nd47%
Ole Miss's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (88th vs 28th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | MISSMISS | TEXTEX | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 23.9 | 28.3 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 67.5 | 66.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 58.3% | 50.8% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +11.8% | +2.3% | −2.0% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 57.3% | 54.1% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 15% | 26% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 26:57 | 29:38 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.3 | Own 29.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
SEC AVAILABILITY · FRI 8:10 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
- OutAnt Davis Jr. · LBAnt Davis Jr.LB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutEdwin Joseph · SEdwin JosephS · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.3
- OutEmanuel Faulkner · OLEmanuel FaulknerOL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutIzaiah Hartrup · WRIzaiah HartrupWR · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%0.0
- OutKervin Johnson Jr. · WRKervin Johnson Jr.WR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%0.0
- OutMJ Preston · SMJ PrestonS · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutNascar McCoy · SNascar McCoyS · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutPat Broomfield · CBPat BroomfieldCB · SOReport trail: Questionable, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- QuestionableTerez Davis · OLTerez DavisOL · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-179%−0.1
- ProbableBrycen Sanders · OLBrycen SandersOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-179%−0.1
- AvailableAnthony Robinson III · SAnthony Robinson IIIS · SOReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailableCaleb Cunningham · WRCaleb CunninghamWR · FRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailableCraig Tutt · SCraig TuttS · FRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailableHayden Bradley · TEHayden BradleyTE · FRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailableJa'Michael Jones · RBJa'Michael JonesRB · FRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailableKewan Lacy · RBKewan LacyRB · JRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailablePatrick Kutas · OLPatrick KutasOL · SRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- OutColin Simmons · EDGEColin SimmonsEDGE · JRReport trail: Doubtful, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.9
- OutHollywood Smothers · RBHollywood SmothersRB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Doubtful, OutT-3 → T-10%−2.3
- OutJaydon Chatman · OLJaydon ChatmanOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutKaliq Lockett · WRKaliq LockettWR · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutRichard Wesley · EDGERichard WesleyEDGE · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- QuestionableJackson Christian · OLJackson ChristianOL · FRReport trail: Available, Available, QuestionableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- ProbableDerrek Cooper · RBDerrek CooperRB · FRReport trail: Available, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-179%0.0
OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE
IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Line movement
−8
−6
−4
−1.1MODEL- SUN 6:12PTotal 53.5 → 52.5
- MON 5:00PTotal 52.5 → 54STEAM · 6 BOOKS
- MON 5:19PTotal 52.5 → 53.5
- TUE 3:00PTotal 54.5 → 53.5 · 74% tickets overTotal 54.5 → 53.5 · 74% on overRLM
Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread TEX | −3.5 | −3 | −1.1 |
TotalSTEAM · 6 BOOKSRLM | 53.0 | 54.0 | 54.1 |
Moneyline TEX | −157 | −155 | −111 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
MISS +3 · 67% / 45%TEX −3 · 33% / 55%
Over · 74% / 85%Under · 26% / 15%
DraftKings bettors, as of 3:45 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 22-pt gap on TEX suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
ABCCrewTBA
Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
- Partly Cloudy
- 86°
- mph SE · G17
- 10
- Precip
- 0%
- Surface
- Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestMISS 7d · TEX 7d