reportedThe Daily Texan football@Phoenix Haigis, Senior Sports Reporter
1dUnconfirmed tip: Simmons could be doubtful against Ole Miss on Saturday.
Colin Simmons · EDGECHECKING
SEC · #19 AP · 4-2 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 1-5 · O/U 2-4
Texas Longhorns
HC Steve Sarkisian (6th yr) · OC Kyle Flood · DC Will Muschamp
STARTS IN 12 PERSONNEL (3 OF 5) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 89%
Power rating11.217th
CFP odds4%—
PLAYOFFBUBBLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins7.4of 12
Fan pulse—20 of 30 scored
SEC · #19 AP · 4-2 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 1-5 · O/U 2-4
Texas
Longhorns · HC Steve Sarkisian (6th yr) · starts in 12 (3 of 5) · base D 4-2-5
Power rating11.217th
CFP odds · outlook4%—BUBBLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins7.4of 12
Fan pulse—20 of 30 scored
Texas
#19 · 4-2 · 1-2 SEC
POWER RATING11.217th in FBS
CFP ODDS4%no change
PROJ. WINS7.4of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKBUBBLE→LONG SHOT
2 losses now · CFP 4% in sims · CCG 4% · title 2%
FAN PULSE—20 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
TEXAS · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedThe Daily Texan football@Phoenix Haigis, Senior Sports Reporter
1dUnconfirmed tip: Wesley could be out against Ole Miss on Saturday.
Richard Wesley · EDGECHECKING
reportedThe Daily Texan football@Sophia Sandoval, Associate Sports Editor
1dUnconfirmed tip: Simmons could be out against Ole Miss on Saturday.
Colin Simmons · EDGECHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Texas StateTexas State | W59–7 | −29.5−29.5 | W | +0.68 | 53% | 39% | 100% | 70 | 27.5 | |
| 2 |   Ohio StateOhio State | W24–23 | −2.5−2.5 | L | −0.03 | 48% | 38% | 54% | 77 | 26.7 | |
| 3 |   UTSAUTSA | W30–6 | −30−30 | L | +0.42 | 45% | 27% | 97% | 84 | 27.9 | |
| 4 |   at Tennesseeat Tennessee | W20–17 | −5.5−5.5 | L | +0.09 | 36% | 30% | 57% | 56 | 33.0 | |
| 5 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 6 |   vs Oklahoma · Dallasvs Oklahoma | L24–27 | −7.5−7.5 | L | +0.17 | 37% | 36% | 44% | 63 | 31.0 | |
| 7 |   FloridaFlorida | L24–27 | −13.5−13.5 | L | −0.23 | 42% | 36% | 42% | 50 | 29.0 | |
| 8 |   Ole MissOle MissNEXT | SAT 7:30 ABCSAT 7:30 | −3−3 | — | — | — | — | 53% | 134 | — | |
| 9 |   Mississippi StateMississippi State | OCT 31OCT 31 | −7.3 proj−7.3 | 67% | |||||||
| 10 |   at Missouriat Missouri | NOV 7NOV 7 | +1 proj+1 | 48% | |||||||
| 11 |   at LSUat LSU | NOV 14NOV 14 | +9.1 proj+9.1 | 29% | |||||||
| 12 |   ArkansasArkansas | NOV 21NOV 21 | −18.6 proj−18.6 | 87% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Texas A&Mat Texas A&M | NOV 27NOV 27 | −3.2 proj−3.2 | 58% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st60%n 550%n 444%n 152—n 0
2nd52%n 2127%n 2657%n 5117%n 18
3rd77%n 2633%n 1821%n 198%n 13
4th40%n 540%n 5100%n 1—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 362 OF 364 PLAYS362 OF 364 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun89% | 89% | 51% | −0.03 | 42% |
| Under center11% | 11% | 35% | +0.13 | 55% |
| No-huddle86% | 86% | 51% | +0.02 | 43% |
| Huddle14% | 14% | 37% | −0.18 | 43% |
StartersSTARTERS
123 of 5 games111 of 5BASE D4-2-54 of 5
123 of 54-2-5base D · 4 of 5
In shotgun on 89 % of tagged snaps, passing 51 % of the time (−0.03 EPA a play; +0.13 under center). No-huddle on 86 %. Starts in 12 personnel in 3 of 5 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (4 of 5).
Next game
SAT 7:30 ABC · DKR-TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUMSAT 7:30 ABC
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Hollywood SmothersRB · JR
RB · top injuryNEXT UPR. BrownΔ −0.15 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−2.3IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −2.3 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC crews−0.4 to +0.5 · 30 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.5 | 30 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews−0.6 to +0.4 · 23 games | −0.1 | −0.6 to +0.4 | 23 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 5 games | −0.7 | — | 5 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 3 games | +1.0 | — | 3 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTDavid Smith−2.8 / g · 5 games · noise−2.8 / g · 5 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTDaniel Gautreaux+3.8 / g · 3 games · noise+3.8 / g · 3 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Texas than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Texas than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #16 · JRArch Manning+0.14EPA/dropback · 74thCPOE−0.5aDOT8.6Sack %8.7%RB · #2 · JRHollywood Smothers46.9%rush SR · 79thYards per carry4.5Explosive rate7.8%Rush EPA+0.02WR · #1 · JRRyan Wingo1.97YPTPA · 85thTarget share22.8%EPA / target+0.53aDOT9.1EDGE · #1 · JRColin Simmons13havoc plays · 3rdTFL13Sacks10Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | TexasTEX | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.05 | 70th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 44.3% | 41st | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.25 | 109th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.01 | 109th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.13 | 60th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 32.3% | 42nd | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.97 | 106th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 8.9% | 129th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 41% | 67th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.86 | 36th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 62% | 78th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 27.8 | 66th | 28.0 |