Mississippi State vs Texas

Mississippi State

4-24-2 · 2-2 SEC · ATS 4-2

7:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 31

DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin

WIN PROB

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Texas

#19 · 4-2#19 · 4-2 · 1-2 SEC · ATS 1-5

Spread: —
Total: —
Model line: —
Win probability: —
Projected score: —
Projected plays: —; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: —
Model: —
Total: —

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Texas runvs Mississippi State run Dvs MSST run DBIGGEST EDGE	110th−0.06	39th−0.05	35	MSST +5.5
Texas passvs Mississippi State pass Dvs MSST pass D	61st+0.01	103rd+0.06	33	TEX +3.4
Mississippi State passvs Texas pass Dvs TEX pass D	30th+0.09	10th−0.15	36	TEX +3.0
Mississippi State runvs Texas run Dvs TEX run D	13th+0.10	13th−0.10	32	TEX +0.0

BIGGEST EDGE · MSST +5.5

The Mississippi State run defense vs Texas's run game

Texas gains +0.01 EPA a play on the run (110th); Mississippi State allows +0.02 (39th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseTexas

TEX OFF

When Texas has the ball

DefenseMississippi State

MSST DEF

+0.0570thEPA / play82nd+0.08
44.3%42ndSuccess rate109th45.1%
1.25108thExplosiveness21st1.23
+0.01110thRush EPA / play39th+0.02
+0.1261stPass EPA / dropback103rd+0.17
48.8%42ndStandard downs SR113th50.2%
32.2%42ndPassing downs SR77th31.1%
2.97107thLine yards87th3.21
17.0%125thHavoc rate42nd15.5%
4.8634thPoints / opportunity116th4.71
62%78thRed zone TD rate112th70%

Texas's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (108th vs 21st).

OffenseMississippi State

MSST OFF

When Mississippi State has the ball

DefenseTexas

TEX DEF

+0.2314thEPA / play5th−0.12
48.8%9thSuccess rate2nd34.8%
1.3624thExplosiveness28th1.24
+0.1713thRush EPA / play13th−0.03
+0.2130thPass EPA / dropback10th−0.04
52.9%10thStandard downs SR11th42.2%
34.0%23rdPassing downs SR3rd26.0%
3.2758thLine yards35th2.81
14.1%83rdHavoc rate18th17.7%
4.9728thPoints / opportunity20th3.19
65%65thRed zone TD rate22nd47%

Texas's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (83rd vs 18th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Mississippi State and Texas, season to date
Metric	MSSTMSST	TEXTEX	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	21.6	28.3	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	69.8	66.7	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	52.5%	50.8%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+2.8%	+2.3%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	47.9%	54.1%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	32%	26%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	27:35	29:38	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 29.3	Own 29.7	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →