SEC · 4-2 · 2-2 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 3-3
Mississippi State Bulldogs
HC Jeff Lebby (3rd yr) · OC — · DC Zach Arnett
STARTS IN 10 PERSONNEL (3 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 100%
SEC · 4-2 · 2-2 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 3-3
Mississippi State
Bulldogs · HC Jeff Lebby (3rd yr) · starts in 10 (3 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
Mississippi State
4-2 · 2-2 SEC
2 losses now · CFP 1% in sims · CCG 2% · title 1%
Latest from the beat
MISSISSIPPI STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   UL MonroeUL Monroe | W62–13 | −28.5−28.5 | W | +0.92 | 60% | 28% | 100% | 78 | 21.7 | |
| 2 |   at Minnesotaat Minnesota | W38–13 | −0.5−0.5 | W | +0.68 | 64% | 41% | 99% | 68 | 27.1 | |
| 3 |   at South Carolinaat South Carolina | W41–34 | +3+3 | W | +0.27 | 47% | 38% | 54% | 57 | 27.2 | |
| 4 |   MissouriMissouri | W31–24 | −3.5−3.5 | W | +0.06 | 46% | 43% | 67% | 78 | 21.6 | |
| 5 |   AlabamaAlabama | L23–56 | +5.5+5.5 | L | −0.66 | 36% | 57% | 6% | 70 | 23.4 | |
| 6 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 7 |   at LSUat LSU | L0–31 | +17.5+17.5 | L | −0.57 | 41% | 71% | 1% | 68 | 27.1 | |
| 8 |   OklahomaOklahomaNEXT | SAT 3:30 SEC NetworkSAT 3:30 | +2.5+2.5 | — | — | — | — | 61% | 132 | — | |
| 9 |   at Texasat Texas | OCT 31OCT 31 | +7.3 proj+7.3 | 33% | |||||||
| 10 |   VanderbiltVanderbilt | NOV 7NOV 7 | −11.6 proj−11.6 | 76% | |||||||
| 11 |   AuburnAuburn | NOV 14NOV 14 | −2.6 proj−2.6 | 56% | |||||||
| 12 |   Tennessee TechTennessee Tech | NOV 21NOV 21 | −32.5 proj−32.5 | 98% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Ole Missat Ole Miss | NOV 27NOV 27 | +8.7 proj+8.7 | 30% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 341 OF 341 PLAYS341 OF 341 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun100% | 100% | 52% | +0.22 | 49% |
| No-huddle89% | 89% | 54% | +0.21 | 50% |
| Huddle11% | 11% | 42% | +0.30 | 33% |
In shotgun on 100 % of tagged snaps, passing 52 % of the time. No-huddle on 89 %. Starts in 10 personnel in 3 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (5 of 6).
Next game
SAT 3:30 SEC Network · DAVIS WADE STADIUMSAT 3:30 SEC Network
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC crews−0.5 to +0.3 · 48 games | −0.1 | −0.5 to +0.3 | 48 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 2 games | +0.9 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | +0.5 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | −0.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 1 game | −0.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | +2.0 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Mississippi State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Mississippi State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Mississippi StateMSST | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.23 | 14th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 48.8% | 9th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.36 | 24th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.17 | 13th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.21 | 30th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 34.1% | 23rd | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.27 | 59th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 7.3% | 109th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 48% | 25th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.97 | 29th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 65% | 65th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 23.1 | 5th | 28.0 |