Ole Miss
#7 · 5-1#7 · 5-1 · 3-1 SEC · ATS 3-3
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ABC
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin
WIN PROB
53%
TEX
Texas
#19 · 4-2#19 · 4-2 · 1-2 SEC · ATS 1-5
- Spread
- TEX −3
- Open −3.5 · −114
- Total
- 54
- Open 53 · o −110
- Model line
- TEX −1.1+1.9
- Model total 54.1
- Win probability
- 53%
- Projected score
- 26.5 – 27.6
- MISS – TEX
- Projected plays
- 134
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- TEX −3
- open −3.5
- Model
- −1.1+1.9
- TEX
- Total
- 54
- model 54.1
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Texas runvs Ole Miss run Dvs MISS run DBIGGEST EDGE | 110th−0.06 | 59th−0.02 | 34 | MISS +4.0 |
  Ole Miss passvs Texas pass Dvs TEX pass D | 7th+0.21 | 10th−0.15 | 38 | MISS +3.3 |
| Texas passvs Ole Miss pass Dvs MISS pass D | 61st+0.01 | 78th+0.02 | 33 | TEX +1.2 |
PaceMISS 23.9 s · TEX 28.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays134 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 134 | O 1.1 |
| Ole Miss runvs Texas run Dvs TEX run D | 8th+0.11 | 13th−0.10 | 29 | MISS +0.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MISS +4.0
The Ole Miss run defense vs Texas's run game
Texas gains +0.01 EPA a play on the run (110th); Ole Miss allows +0.05 (59th). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseTexas
TEX OFFWhen Texas has the ball
DefenseOle Miss
MISS DEF- +0.0570thEPA / play70th+0.05
- 44.3%42ndSuccess rate73rd42.4%
- 1.25108thExplosiveness43rd1.27
- +0.01110thRush EPA / play59th+0.05
- +0.1261stPass EPA / dropback78th+0.13
- 48.8%42ndStandard downs SR91st49.1%
- 32.2%42ndPassing downs SR37th29.5%
- 2.97107thLine yards59th3.01
- 17.0%125thHavoc rate77th14.1%
- 4.8634thPoints / opportunity48th3.71
- −0.02111thEarly-down EPA / play84th+0.07
- 40.8%67th3rd-down conversion113th43.8%
- 17.2%92ndStuff rate14th23.2%
- 8.9%127thSack rate86th5.0%
- 62%78thRed zone TD rate24th47%
Ole Miss's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (92nd vs 14th).
OffenseOle Miss
MISS OFFWhen Ole Miss has the ball
DefenseTexas
TEX DEF- +0.265thEPA / play5th−0.12
- 50.3%3rdSuccess rate2nd34.8%
- 1.2790thExplosiveness28th1.24
- +0.188thRush EPA / play13th−0.03
- +0.337thPass EPA / dropback10th−0.04
- 53.9%5thStandard downs SR11th42.2%
- 35.5%9thPassing downs SR3rd26.0%
- 3.707thLine yards35th2.81
- 9.4%12thHavoc rate18th17.7%
- 5.359thPoints / opportunity20th3.19
- +0.2221stEarly-down EPA / play6th−0.17
- 50.0%17th3rd-down conversion29th32.9%
- 12.4%25thStuff rate28th20.0%
- 1.5%7thSack rate19th7.7%
- 91%1stRed zone TD rate22nd47%
Ole Miss's offense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (90th vs 28th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | MISSMISS | TEXTEX | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 23.9 | 28.3 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 67.5 | 66.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 58.3% | 50.8% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +11.8% | +2.3% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 57.3% | 54.1% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 15% | 26% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 26:57 | 29:38 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.3 | Own 29.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%