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2026 · THROUGH WK 8

SEC · 3-4 · 0-4 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 5-2

Vanderbilt Commodores

HC Clark Lea (6th yr) · OC Tim Beck · DC Steve Gregory

STARTS IN 21 PERSONNEL (4 OF 6) · BASE D 5-1-5 · SHOTGUN 94%

Power rating−1.880th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFOUT→OUT
Proj. wins4.1of 12
Fan pulse—2 of 30 scored

SEC · 3-4 · 0-4 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 5-2

Vanderbilt

Commodores · HC Clark Lea (6th yr) · starts in 21 (4 of 6) · base D 5-1-5

Power rating−1.880th
CFP odds · outlook0%—OUT→OUT
Proj. wins4.1of 12
Fan pulse—2 of 30 scored

Vanderbilt

3-4 · 0-4 SEC

POWER RATING−1.880th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS4.1of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKOUT→OUT

4 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%

FAN PULSE—2 of 30 scored

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VANDERBILT · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H

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Schedule & resultsSchedule

POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED

Vanderbilt schedule and results
Wk
Opponent
Result
Line
ATS
Net EPA
Off SR
Def SR
Win prob
Plays
s/play
1Austin PeayAustin PeayW28–9−29.5−29.5L+0.3648%36%93%6234.9
2DelawareDelawareW35–26−21−21L+0.1840%33%62%6526.7
3NC StateNC StateW35–31−3−3W+0.1347%40%57%5824.3
4at Auburnat AuburnL15–21+10+10W−0.0739%36%38%7531.4
5at Georgiaat GeorgiaL14–38+25.5+25.5W−0.3333%60%6%5031.4
6Ole MissOle MissL17–52+9.5+9.5L−0.6531%62%12%7229.3
7ArkansasArkansasL21–31−5.5−5.5L−0.2545%49%27%6028.1
8at Kentuckyat KentuckyNEXTSAT 7:30 SEC NetworkSAT 7:30+10.5+10.5————27%126—
9BYE
10at Mississippi Stateat Mississippi StateNOV 7NOV 7+11.6 proj+11.624%
11AlabamaAlabamaNOV 14NOV 14+17.2 proj+17.215%
12at Floridaat FloridaNOV 21NOV 21+13.3 proj+13.321%
13TennesseeTennesseeNOV 28NOV 28+11.4 proj+11.425%

Success rate by down & distance

1st67%n 367%n 346%n 15827%n 11
2nd52%n 2352%n 2332%n 5310%n 21
3rd52%n 2139%n 1830%n 2728%n 18
4th69%n 1350%n 40%n 1—n 0

Formation & personnelFormation

PBP TAGS · 390 OF 397 PLAYS390 OF 397 PLAYS TAGGED

Formation splits
LookLook · usage
Usage
Pass %Pass
EPA/playEPA
SR
Shotgun94%94%54%+0.0140%
Under center6%6%21%+0.0742%
No-huddle54%54%54%+0.0542%
Huddle46%46%51%−0.0338%
StartersSTARTERS
214 of 6 games111 of 6BASE D5-1-56 of 6
214 of 65-1-5base D · 6 of 6

In shotgun on 94 % of tagged snaps, passing 54 % of the time (+0.01 EPA a play; +0.07 under center). No-huddle on 54 %. Starts in 21 personnel in 4 of 6 games. Base defense 5-1-5 (6 of 6).

Next game

SAT 7:30 SEC Network · KROGER FIELDSAT 7:30 SEC Network

at KentuckyLINE+10.5MODEL+10.1WP27%

TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT

O
Blaze BerlowitzQB · SR
QB · top injury
0%TO PLAY
−0.6IMPACT PTS

% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported

LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.6 PTS

Refs

JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026

Judgment flags over expected by crew conference
Crews from
FOE / G
90% range
Games
Read
SEC crews−0.6 to +0.3 · 27 games−0.1−0.6 to +0.327NOISE
ACC crews— · 2 games+1.4—2NOISE
Mountain West crews— · 1 game+2.5—1NOISE
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTKen Williamson−1.4 / g · 3 games · noise−1.4 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTMatt Loeffler+1.3 / g · 3 games · noise+1.3 / g · 3 g · noise

+ = more judgment flags on Vanderbilt than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Vanderbilt than expected · no lean before 8 games

Key players

Unit statsEfficiency

OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED

Vanderbilt offense statistics
MetricStat
VanderbiltVAN
RankRK
FBS avgVS FBS
EPA / play+0.0290th+0.06
Success rate39.5%102nd42.3%
Explosiveness1.3248th1.30
Rush EPA / play+0.0586th+0.07
Pass EPA / play+0.04104th+0.11
Passing downs SR28.5%114th31.1%
Line yards3.1487th3.21
Sack rate allowed4.9%62nd5.3%
3rd-down conversion37%99th41%
Points / opportunity3.9790th4.27
Red zone TD rate70%40th63%
Seconds / play29.599th28.0