Vanderbilt vs Kentucky

Vanderbilt

3-43-4 · 0-4 SEC · ATS 3-4

7:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · SEC Network

Kroger Field · Lexington

WIN PROB

73%

Kentucky

#12 · 6-1#12 · 6-1 · 4-1 SEC · ATS 6-1

Spread: UK −10.5; Open −11 · −110
Total: 52; Open 51.5 · o −110
Model line: UK −10.1; Model total 56.5
Win probability: 73%
Projected score: 23.2 – 33.3; VAN – UK
Projected plays: 126; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: UK −10.5; open −11
Model: −10.1; UK
Total: 52; model 56.5

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Kentucky runvs Vanderbilt run Dvs VAN run DBIGGEST EDGE	25th+0.08	98th+0.05	31	UK +5.6
Vanderbilt passvs Kentucky pass Dvs UK pass D	105th−0.08	53rd−0.03	33	UK +5.1
Kentucky passvs Vanderbilt pass Dvs VAN pass D	57th+0.01	94th+0.04	32	UK +2.6
PaceVAN 27.8 s · UK 28.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays126 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	126	U 2.5
Vanderbilt runvs Kentucky run Dvs UK run D	86th−0.02	88th+0.03	30	VAN +0.3

BIGGEST EDGE · UK +5.6

Kentucky's run game vs the Vanderbilt run defense

Kentucky gains +0.14 EPA a play on the run (25th); Vanderbilt allows +0.12 (98th). About 31 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseKentucky

UK OFF

When Kentucky has the ball

DefenseVanderbilt

VAN DEF

+0.1434thEPA / play95th+0.12
47.4%15thSuccess rate93rd44.1%
1.22125thExplosiveness42nd1.27
+0.1425thRush EPA / play98th+0.12
+0.1357thPass EPA / dropback94th+0.16
52.8%11thStandard downs SR105th49.8%
30.7%76thPassing downs SR88th31.7%
3.3940thLine yards95th3.24
11.5%31stHavoc rate116th12.0%
4.6746thPoints / opportunity126th5.00
68%53rdRed zone TD rate131st79%

Kentucky's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (11th vs 105th).

OffenseVanderbilt

VAN OFF

When Vanderbilt has the ball

DefenseKentucky

UK DEF

+0.0193rdEPA / play59th+0.04
39.4%104thSuccess rate92nd44.0%
1.3250thExplosiveness36th1.26
+0.0586thRush EPA / play88th+0.10
+0.04105thPass EPA / dropback53rd+0.08
45.5%92ndStandard downs SR43rd45.8%
28.5%114thPassing downs SR138th37.6%
3.1487thLine yards77th3.15
13.9%78thHavoc rate29th16.3%
3.9790thPoints / opportunity102nd4.39
70%39thRed zone TD rate108th69%

Kentucky's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (39th vs 108th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Vanderbilt and Kentucky, season to date
Metric	VANVAN	UKUK	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	27.8	28.9	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	63.1	62.7	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	55.3%	54.3%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+3.0%	+2.8%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	52.5%	50.3%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	35%	29%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	28:30	28:11	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 29.0	Own 31.9	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Vanderbilt

SEC REPORT · FRI 8:10 PMNET −1.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Aaron Bryant · DLAaron BryantDL · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Blaze Berlowitz · QBBlaze BerlowitzQB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.6
Out
Brian Allen Jr. · EDGEBrian Allen Jr.EDGE · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Out
Gunner Givens · OLGunner GivensOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jamison Curtis · LBJamison CurtisLB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jaylin Lackey · CBJaylin LackeyCB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Josiah Broxton · LBJosiah BroxtonLB · SOReport trail: Doubtful, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Kahden Smith · WRKahden SmithWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Nikhil Jefferson · DLNikhil JeffersonDL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Available
Cayden Daniels · CBCayden DanielsCB · SOReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
Davin Chandler · SDavin ChandlerS · SOReport trail: Questionable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
Dontae Carter · SDontae CarterS · JRReport trail: Questionable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
Hayden Bray · DLHayden BrayDL · SRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
Mitchell Smith · OLMitchell SmithOL · FRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

Kentucky

SEC REPORT · FRI 8:10 PMNET −1.4% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Antwan Smith · LBAntwan SmithLB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Grant Grayton · DBGrant GraytonDB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jaden Smith · DBJaden SmithDB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Lincoln Watkins · TELincoln WatkinsTE · FRReport trail: Available, Available, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Nic Anderson · WRNic AndersonWR · SRReport trail: Questionable, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−1.1
Out
Sam Greene · LBSam GreeneLB · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Questionable
Cole Marszalek · LSCole MarszalekLS · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Tyler Thomas · EDGETyler ThomasEDGE · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Available
CJ Baxter · RBCJ BaxterRB · SRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
Kalen Edwards · DLKalen EdwardsDL · SOReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
Tavion Wallace · LBTavion WallaceLB · SOReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

MON 12:14PSpread −10.5 → −11.5
MON 5:00PTotal 50.5 → 51.5STEAM · 6 BOOKS
MON 5:19PTotal 50.5 → 51.5
TUE 1:15PSpread −11.5 → −10.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread UKSTEAM · 4 BOOKS	−11	−10.5	−10.1
TotalSTEAM · 6 BOOKS	51.5	52.0	56.5
Moneyline UK	−450	−450	−270

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

VAN +10.5 · 27% / 52%UK −10.5 · 73% / 48%

Over · 67% / 7%Under · 33% / 93%

DraftKings bettors, as of 6:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 60-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

SEC Network

Play-by-playMatt Schumacker

AnalystAaron Murray

SidelineTaylor Davis

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Clear: 67°
mph ENE: 1
Precip: 0%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestVAN 7d · UK 7d

Injury report

Vanderbilt

Kentucky

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew