Vanderbilt
3-43-4 · 0-4 SEC · ATS 3-4
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · SEC Network
Kroger Field · Lexington
WIN PROB
73%
UK
Kentucky
#12 · 6-1#12 · 6-1 · 4-1 SEC · ATS 6-1
- Spread
- UK −10.5
- Open −11 · −110
- Total
- 52
- Open 51.5 · o −110
- Model line
- UK −10.1
- Model total 56.5
- Win probability
- 73%
- Projected score
- 23.2 – 33.3
- VAN – UK
- Projected plays
- 126
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- UK −10.5
- open −11
- Model
- −10.1
- UK
- Total
- 52
- model 56.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Kentucky runvs Vanderbilt run Dvs VAN run DBIGGEST EDGE | 25th+0.08 | 98th+0.05 | 31 | UK +5.6 |
  Vanderbilt passvs Kentucky pass Dvs UK pass D | 105th−0.08 | 53rd−0.03 | 33 | UK +5.1 |
| Kentucky passvs Vanderbilt pass Dvs VAN pass D | 57th+0.01 | 94th+0.04 | 32 | UK +2.6 |
PaceVAN 27.8 s · UK 28.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays126 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 126 | U 2.5 |
| Vanderbilt runvs Kentucky run Dvs UK run D | 86th−0.02 | 88th+0.03 | 30 | VAN +0.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UK +5.6
Kentucky's run game vs the Vanderbilt run defense
Kentucky gains +0.14 EPA a play on the run (25th); Vanderbilt allows +0.12 (98th). About 31 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseKentucky
UK OFFWhen Kentucky has the ball
DefenseVanderbilt
VAN DEF- +0.1434thEPA / play95th+0.12
- 47.4%15thSuccess rate93rd44.1%
- 1.22125thExplosiveness42nd1.27
- +0.1425thRush EPA / play98th+0.12
- +0.1357thPass EPA / dropback94th+0.16
- 52.8%11thStandard downs SR105th49.8%
- 30.7%76thPassing downs SR88th31.7%
- 3.3940thLine yards95th3.24
- 11.5%31stHavoc rate116th12.0%
- 4.6746thPoints / opportunity126th5.00
- +0.2318thEarly-down EPA / play96th+0.08
- 29.3%134th3rd-down conversion102nd41.9%
- 15.0%62ndStuff rate119th12.6%
- 7.0%102ndSack rate55th6.1%
- 68%53rdRed zone TD rate131st79%
Kentucky's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (11th vs 105th).
OffenseVanderbilt
VAN OFFWhen Vanderbilt has the ball
DefenseKentucky
UK DEF- +0.0193rdEPA / play59th+0.04
- 39.4%104thSuccess rate92nd44.0%
- 1.3250thExplosiveness36th1.26
- +0.0586thRush EPA / play88th+0.10
- +0.04105thPass EPA / dropback53rd+0.08
- 45.5%92ndStandard downs SR43rd45.8%
- 28.5%114thPassing downs SR138th37.6%
- 3.1487thLine yards77th3.15
- 13.9%78thHavoc rate29th16.3%
- 3.9790thPoints / opportunity102nd4.39
- 0.00101stEarly-down EPA / play48th0.00
- 36.9%98th3rd-down conversion129th48.4%
- 14.1%46thStuff rate65th16.8%
- 4.9%62ndSack rate79th5.2%
- 70%39thRed zone TD rate108th69%
Kentucky's defense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (39th vs 108th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | VANVAN | UKUK | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.8 | 28.9 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 63.1 | 62.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 55.3% | 54.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.0% | +2.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 52.5% | 50.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 35% | 29% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 28:30 | 28:11 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.0 | Own 31.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%