reportedKentucky Kernel football@Ella Russell, Sports Reporter
11hUnconfirmed tip: Smith could be out against Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Antwan Smith · LBCHECKING
SEC · #12 AP · 6-1 · 4-1 CONF · ATS 6-1 · O/U 5-2
Kentucky Wildcats
HC Will Stein (1st yr) · OC Joe Sloan · DC Jay Bateman
STARTS IN 12 PERSONNEL (3 OF 5) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 93%
Power rating5.341st
CFP odds3%−1
PLAYOFFIN→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.3of 12
Fan pulse—1 of 30 scored
SEC · #12 AP · 6-1 · 4-1 CONF · ATS 6-1 · O/U 5-2
Kentucky
Wildcats · HC Will Stein (1st yr) · starts in 12 (3 of 5) · base D 3-3-5
Power rating5.341st
CFP odds · outlook3%−1IN→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.3of 12
Fan pulse—1 of 30 scored
Kentucky
#12 · 6-1 · 4-1 SEC
POWER RATING5.341st in FBS
CFP ODDS3%−1 this week
PROJ. WINS8.3of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKIN→LONG SHOT
1 loss now · CFP 3% in sims · CCG 18% · title 5%
FAN PULSE—1 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
KENTUCKY · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedKentucky Kernel football@Ella Russell, Sports Reporter
11hUnconfirmed tip: Smith could be out against Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Jaden Smith · DBCHECKING
reportedKentucky Kernel football@Ella Russell, Sports Reporter
11hUnconfirmed tip: Grayton could be out against Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Grant Grayton · DBCHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Youngstown StateYoungstown State | W45–13 | −22.5−22.5 | W | +0.59 | 64% | 48% | 98% | 56 | 32.0 | |
| 2 |   AlabamaAlabama | L17–45 | +9+9 | L | −0.48 | 31% | 47% | 5% | 62 | 29.1 | |
| 3 |   at Texas A&Mat Texas A&M | W31–21 | +16.5+16.5 | W | +0.34 | 52% | 43% | 72% | 52 | 32.1 | |
| 4 |   South AlabamaSouth Alabama | W45–21 | −20.5−20.5 | W | +0.41 | 60% | 33% | 89% | 68 | 30.8 | |
| 5 |   at South Carolinaat South Carolina | W35–34 | +2.5+2.5 | W | −0.07 | 50% | 49% | 46% | 78 | 27.3 | |
| 6 |   LSULSU | W35–34 | +9.5+9.5 | W | −0.07 | 43% | 51% | 48% | 69 | 26.0 | |
| 7 |   at Oklahomaat Oklahoma | W21–13 | +7+7 | W | +0.12 | 39% | 40% | 68% | 54 | 31.7 | |
| 8 |   VanderbiltVanderbiltNEXT | SAT 7:30 SEC NetworkSAT 7:30 | −10.5−10.5 | — | — | — | — | 73% | 126 | — | |
| 9 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 10 |   at Tennesseeat Tennessee | NOV 7NOV 7 | +9 proj+9 | 29% | |||||||
| 11 |   FloridaFlorida | NOV 14NOV 14 | +0.8 proj+0.8 | 48% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Missouriat Missouri | NOV 21NOV 21 | +7.1 proj+7.1 | 33% | |||||||
| 13 |   LouisvilleLouisville | NOV 28NOV 28 | +1 proj+1 | 48% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st86%n 750%n 249%n 17460%n 5
2nd75%n 2857%n 3746%n 5432%n 19
3rd45%n 2042%n 2412%n 177%n 14
4th58%n 1250%n 20%n 1—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 414 OF 416 PLAYS414 OF 416 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun93% | 93% | 53% | +0.09 | 46% |
| Under center7% | 7% | 24% | +0.50 | 66% |
| No-huddle18% | 18% | 63% | −0.07 | 42% |
| Huddle82% | 82% | 49% | +0.16 | 49% |
StartersSTARTERS
123 of 5 games111 of 5BASE D3-3-55 of 5
123 of 53-3-5base D · 5 of 5
In shotgun on 93 % of tagged snaps, passing 53 % of the time (+0.09 EPA a play; +0.50 under center). No-huddle on 18 %. Starts in 12 personnel in 3 of 5 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (5 of 5).
Next game
SAT 7:30 SEC Network · KROGER FIELDSAT 7:30 SEC Network
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Nic AndersonWR · SR
WR · top injuryNEXT UPD. MillerΔ −0.25 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−1.1IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −1.1 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC crews−0.6 to +0.3 · 36 games | −0.1 | −0.6 to +0.3 | 36 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 2 games | +3.0 | — | 2 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTSteve Marlowe−1.7 / g · 4 games · noise−1.7 / g · 4 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTKyle Olson+1.2 / g · 5 games · noise+1.2 / g · 5 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Kentucky than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Kentucky than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #3 · SRKenny Minchey+0.14EPA/dropback · 73rdCPOE+0.9aDOT6.6Sack %6.9%RB · #1 · SRCJ Baxter51.2%rush SR · 40thYards per carry5.7Explosive rate11.6%Rush EPA+0.27WR · #19 · FRKenny Darby2.12YPTPA · 65thTarget share23.7%EPA / target+0.26aDOT7.5DL · #90 · SRMi'Quise Humphrey-Grace7havoc plays · 47thTFL6Sacks4Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | KentuckyUK | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.14 | 34th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 47.4% | 15th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.22 | 124th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.15 | 24th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.13 | 57th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 30.7% | 77th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.39 | 40th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 7.0% | 103rd | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 29% | 134th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.67 | 48th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 68% | 53rd | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 29.4 | 96th | 28.0 |