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FINAL · ESPN2 · PITBULL STADIUM
NMSUNew Mexico State
32-4 · 1-1 C-USA
3
FINAL
FIUFlorida International
223-2 · 1-0 C-USA
22
FIU −7 COVERUNDER 47MODEL EDGE MISS
PREGAME WP FIU 63%→POSTGAME WE FIU 94%
Pitbull Stadium · 10,013
Postgame WE
94%FIU · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
−0.19NMSU −0.47
Success rate
38%NMSU 35%
Turnovers
1–1≈ 2.8 pts swing
vs model
+19proj FIU by 5.4
Plays · pace
124proj 137 · 29.0s

Win probability · full game

FIU LOW 57% · Q1 12:03 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 3.1

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1Florida International
    Miller intercepts Damante
    (07:07) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass intercepted by #4 W.Miller at FIU27 #4 W.Miller return 20 yards to the FIU47 (#88 C.Su'esu'e)
    Q1 7:07 · 1st & 10 50 · −5.2 NMSU EPA
    Q1 7:07 · 1st & 10 50 · −5.2 NMSU EPA
    +.13
  2. 2New Mexico State
    Peterson sacks Kohl, −6
    (12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl sacked for loss of 6 yards to the FIU08 (#16 G.Peterson)
    Q1 12:10 · 3rd & 6 FIU 14 · −2.9 FIU EPA
    Q1 12:10 · 3rd & 6 FIU 14 · −2.9 FIU EPA
    −.09
  3. 3New Mexico State
    Jones 27-yd run
    (14:57) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 27 yards gain to the FIU38 (#7 J.Celestine), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 14:57 · 1st & 10 NMSU 35 · +1.7 EPA
    Q1 14:57 · 1st & 10 NMSU 35 · +1.7 EPA
    −.08
  4. 4New Mexico State
    Kohl incomplete
    (08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short left thrown to FIU40 QB hurried by #16 G.Peterson PENALTY FIU Intentional Grounding (#17 J.Kohl)
    Q2 8:07 · 1st & 10 FIU 34 · −2.0 FIU EPA
    Q2 8:07 · 1st & 10 FIU 34 · −2.0 FIU EPA
    −.08
  5. 5Florida International
    Offside on NMSU
    PENALTY NMSU Offside (#21 Z.Thomas) 5 yards from FIU08 to FIU13. NO PLAY
    Q1 11:27 · 4th & 12 FIU 8 · +0.8 EPA
    Q1 11:27 · 4th & 12 FIU 8 · +0.8 EPA
    +.07

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 124 plays