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FINAL · CBSSN · NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUM
UNTNorth Texas
495-2 · 3-0 American
49
FINAL
NAVYNavy
392-5 · 1-4 American
39
UNT −3 COVEROVER 60.5MODEL EDGE HIT
PREGAME WP UNT 59%→POSTGAME WE UNT 44%
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Postgame WE
44%UNT · 10k sims
How often this box score wins
Offense EPA / play
+0.55NAVY +0.31
Success rate
64%NAVY 47%
Turnovers
1–0≈ 2.9 pts swing
vs model
+10proj UNT by 4.0
Plays · pace
126proj 137 · 28.6s

Win probability · full game

UNT LOW 50% · Q1 14:18 · EXCITEMENT INDEX 5.5

Plays that decided it

Ranked by |win probability added|
  1. 1North Texas
    Egbe 2-yd TD run
    (08:05) Shotgun #41 S.Egbe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNT37 fumbled by #41 S.Egbe at UNT39 forced by #42 B.Knox recovered by UNT #3 Z.Barker at UNT37 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:55 #90 D.De Freitas kick attempt good (H: #37 I.Ratliff, LS: #52 J.Poff)
    Q3 8:05 · 1st & 10 · 28–17 → 35–17 · +3.7 NAVY EPA
    Q3 8:05 · 28–17 → 35–17 · +3.7 NAVY EPA
    +.16
  2. 2North Texas
    Jackson 45-yd TD to Stevenson
    (10:05) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete deep middle to #13 J.Stevenson caught at Navy02, for 45 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:05, 1ST DOWN #90 D.De Freitas kick attempt good (H: #37 I.Ratliff, LS: #52 J.Poff)
    Q1 10:05 · 1st & 10 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.9 EPA
    Q1 10:05 · 0–0 → 7–0 · +3.9 EPA
    +.13
  3. 3North Texas
    White 59-yd TD run
    (09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.White rush right for 59 yards gain to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:38, 1ST DOWN #90 D.De Freitas kick attempt good (H: #37 I.Ratliff, LS: #52 J.Poff)
    Q4 9:44 · 1st & 10 · 42–39 → 49–39 · +5.0 EPA
    Q4 9:44 · 42–39 → 49–39 · +5.0 EPA
    +.13
  4. 4Navy
    Gutierrez 26-yd run
    (08:49) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 26 yards gain to the UNT47 (#5 C.Canada), 1ST DOWN
    Q1 8:49 · 3rd & 8 NAVY 27 · +4.4 EPA
    Q1 8:49 · 3rd & 8 NAVY 27 · +4.4 EPA
    −.10
  5. 5North Texas
    White 3-yd TD run
    (10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.White rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:05, 1ST DOWN #90 D.De Freitas kick attempt good (H: #37 I.Ratliff, LS: #52 J.Poff)
    Q2 10:06 · 2nd & Goal · 14–10 → 21–10 · +1.3 EPA
    Q2 10:06 · 14–10 → 21–10 · +1.3 EPA
    +.10

Player EPA

Total · game
Full box scoreAll 126 plays

Play-by-play

Box score

Team box score, North Texas at Navy
StatUNTNAVY
Total yards587523
Plays5278
Yards / play11.36.7
EPA / play+0.55+0.31
Success rate64%47%
Explosive plays1013
Havoc rate12%14%
3rd down3–75–12
Pts / opportunity3.003.55
Turnovers10
Time of possession——
Postgame WE44%56%