Delaware vs Western Kentucky

Delaware

3-43-4 · 1-2 C-USA · ATS 4-3

7:00 PM ET

Tue, Oct 27 · CBSSN

Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Bowling Green

WIN PROB

—

Western Kentucky

3-43-4 · 2-1 C-USA · ATS 4-3

Spread: DEL −2.5; Open −2.5 · −110
Total: 59.5; Open 57.5 · o −110
Model line: —
Win probability: —
Projected score: —
Projected plays: —; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: DEL −2.5; open −2.5
Model: —
Total: 59.5

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Delaware passvs Western Kentucky pass Dvs WKU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	104th−0.08	38th−0.06	39	WKU +7.8
Western Kentucky runvs Delaware run Dvs DEL run D	132nd−0.13	86th+0.03	32	DEL +4.8
Western Kentucky passvs Delaware pass Dvs DEL pass D	100th−0.07	116th+0.10	36	WKU +1.9
Delaware runvs Western Kentucky run Dvs WKU run D	102nd−0.05	102nd+0.05	29	DEL +0.2

BIGGEST EDGE · WKU +7.8

The Western Kentucky pass defense vs Delaware's passing game

Delaware gains +0.04 EPA a play on the pass (104th); Western Kentucky allows +0.05 (38th). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseWestern Kentucky

WKU OFF

When Western Kentucky has the ball

DefenseDelaware

DEL DEF

−0.06114thEPA / play106th+0.13
38.1%124thSuccess rate122nd47.0%
1.2879thExplosiveness75th1.30
−0.06132ndRush EPA / play86th+0.10
+0.05100thPass EPA / dropback116th+0.22
43.3%127thStandard downs SR123rd51.3%
29.9%93rdPassing downs SR116th33.3%
2.71129thLine yards88th3.21
15.4%106thHavoc rate56th15.0%
3.08130thPoints / opportunity72nd4.06
−0.06118thEarly-down EPA / play92nd+0.08
38.0%89th3rd-down conversion74th39.1%
19.9%119thStuff rate114th13.3%
5.4%83rdSack rate58th6.0%
38%135thRed zone TD rate116th73%

Delaware's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: points per opportunity (130th vs 72nd).

OffenseDelaware

DEL OFF

When Delaware has the ball

DefenseWestern Kentucky

WKU DEF

−0.01103rdEPA / play85th+0.09
39.4%103rdSuccess rate59th41.5%
1.3530thExplosiveness127th1.39
+0.02102ndRush EPA / play102nd+0.12
+0.04104thPass EPA / dropback38th+0.05
45.0%105thStandard downs SR47th46.0%
30.6%79thPassing downs SR78th31.1%
3.0299thLine yards98th3.26
16.0%118thHavoc rate84th13.6%
5.2813thPoints / opportunity94th4.33
+0.0196thEarly-down EPA / play119th+0.14
32.9%118th3rd-down conversion10th29.4%
19.1%112thStuff rate79th15.8%
8.5%124thSack rate109th4.1%
65%64thRed zone TD rate120th75%

Western Kentucky's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (118th vs 10th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Delaware and Western Kentucky, season to date
Metric	DELDEL	WKUWKU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	29.8	24.4	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	65.4	71.3	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	57.8%	55.4%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+7.0%	+5.3%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	56.5%	53.1%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	25%	23%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	29:06	29:59	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 29.6	Own 27.7	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%