Tulane
3-33-3 · 1-1 American · ATS 3-3
7:00 PM ET
Fri, Oct 30 · ESPN2
Jerry Richardson Stadium · Charlotte
WIN PROB
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Charlotte
1-61-6 · 1-2 American · ATS 3-4
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Charlotte passvs Tulane pass Dvs TULN pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 120th−0.13 | 65th−0.01 | 37 | TULN +7.5 |
| Charlotte runvs Tulane run Dvs TULN run D | 115th−0.07 | 71st+0.01 | 31 | TULN +2.9 |
  Tulane runvs Charlotte run Dvs CLT run D | 95th−0.04 | 107th+0.06 | 35 | TULN +1.0 |
| Tulane passvs Charlotte pass Dvs CLT pass D | 115th−0.12 | 124th+0.12 | 33 | TULN +0.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · TULN +7.5
The Tulane pass defense vs Charlotte's passing game
Charlotte gains −0.02 EPA a play on the pass (120th); Tulane allows +0.11 (65th). About 37 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseCharlotte
CLT OFFWhen Charlotte has the ball
DefenseTulane
TULN DEF- −0.11133rdEPA / play60th+0.04
- 35.9%132ndSuccess rate58th41.5%
- 1.3342ndExplosiveness84th1.31
- 0.00115thRush EPA / play71st+0.08
- −0.02120thPass EPA / dropback65th+0.11
- 42.2%131stStandard downs SR55th46.5%
- 28.1%116thPassing downs SR83rd31.3%
- 2.63133rdLine yards125th3.48
- 14.8%94thHavoc rate112th12.2%
- 3.43121stPoints / opportunity11th2.95
- 0.00103rdEarly-down EPA / play81st+0.07
- 33.8%112th3rd-down conversion122nd46.0%
- 23.4%135thStuff rate118th12.8%
- 4.2%49thSack rate73rd5.4%
- 67%55thRed zone TD rate16th46%
Tulane's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: points per opportunity (121st vs 11th).
OffenseTulane
TULN OFFWhen Tulane has the ball
DefenseCharlotte
CLT DEF- −0.04109thEPA / play125th+0.19
- 34.5%136thSuccess rate130th47.4%
- 1.424thExplosiveness82nd1.31
- +0.0395thRush EPA / play107th+0.13
- 0.00115thPass EPA / dropback124th+0.24
- 40.9%135thStandard downs SR120th50.7%
- 27.5%121stPassing downs SR131st35.7%
- 2.90118thLine yards69th3.12
- 16.2%121stHavoc rate117th11.9%
- 3.08130thPoints / opportunity131st5.14
- −0.07126thEarly-down EPA / play137th+0.28
- 37.8%91st3rd-down conversion115th44.0%
- 17.7%96thStuff rate23rd21.4%
- 7.2%107thSack rate84th5.0%
- 55%104thRed zone TD rate127th78%
Tulane's offense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (4th vs 82nd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | TULNTULN | CLTCLT | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.4 | 28.3 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 57.5 | 57.4 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 48.5% | 54.2% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −4.6% | +2.6% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 41.7% | 55.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 14% | 22% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 26:20 | 28:08 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.6 | Own 27.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%