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SAT TBA · UNIVERSITY PARK
Purdue
3-43-4 · 2-2 Big Ten · ATS 3-4
TBA
Sat, Oct 31
Beaver Stadium · University Park
WIN PROB
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Penn State
3-43-4 · 0-4 Big Ten · ATS 3-4
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Penn State passvs Purdue pass Dvs PUR pass DBIGGEST EDGE
46th+0.04115th+0.1036PSU +7.5
Purdue runvs Penn State run Dvs PSU run D
73rd−0.0198th+0.0533PUR +2.1
Purdue passvs Penn State pass Dvs PSU pass D
20th+0.139th−0.1736PSU +1.9
Penn State runvs Purdue run Dvs PUR run D
115th−0.07104th+0.0632PUR +0.8

BIGGEST EDGE · PSU +7.5

Penn State's passing game vs the Purdue pass defense

Penn State gains +0.16 EPA a play on the pass (46th); Purdue allows +0.21 (115th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffensePenn State
PSU OFF

When Penn State has the ball

DefensePurdue
PUR DEF
  • +0.0476thEPA / play116th+0.16
  • 39.9%99thSuccess rate106th45.1%
  • 1.3058thExplosiveness123rd1.37
  • 0.00115thRush EPA / play104th+0.12
  • +0.1646thPass EPA / dropback115th+0.21
  • 44.4%114thStandard downs SR89th48.9%
  • 30.0%92ndPassing downs SR127th35.0%
  • 2.72128thLine yards104th3.33
  • 14.4%87thHavoc rate95th13.1%
  • 3.8399thPoints / opportunity119th4.72
  • 48%130thRed zone TD rate103rd68%

Penn State's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: pass EPA (46th vs 115th).

OffensePurdue
PUR OFF

When Purdue has the ball

DefensePenn State
PSU DEF
  • +0.1624thEPA / play28th−0.02
  • 44.5%39thSuccess rate41st40.3%
  • 1.3818thExplosiveness52nd1.28
  • +0.0673rdRush EPA / play98th+0.12
  • +0.2420thPass EPA / dropback9th−0.05
  • 48.3%50thStandard downs SR51st46.3%
  • 33.7%26thPassing downs SR37th29.5%
  • 2.92113thLine yards86th3.21
  • 13.7%76thHavoc rate28th16.6%
  • 4.8831stPoints / opportunity52nd3.75
  • 69%47thRed zone TD rate67th61%

Purdue's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (76th vs 28th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Purdue and Penn State, season to date
MetricPURPURPSUPSUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral31.129.928.9
Plays per gamePlays per game68.466.765.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral52.1%58.2%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+3.0%+5.9%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral49.0%51.8%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations27%22%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession32:5431:2830:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 29.7Own 31.9Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

BIG TEN AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Purdue

BIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 7 game-day report2 OUT FOR SEASON · 2 OUT

Penn State

BIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 7 game-day report5 OUT FOR SEASON · 8 OUT · 4 GAME-TIME DECISION

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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mph
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Precip
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Surface
Grass
RefereeCrew TBA
RestPUR 15d · PSU 14dBOTH OFF BYE