Purdue
3-43-4 · 2-2 Big Ten · ATS 3-4
TBA
Sat, Oct 31
Beaver Stadium · University Park
WIN PROB
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Penn State
3-43-4 · 0-4 Big Ten · ATS 3-4
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Penn State passvs Purdue pass Dvs PUR pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 46th+0.04 | 115th+0.10 | 36 | PSU +7.5 |
  Purdue runvs Penn State run Dvs PSU run D | 73rd−0.01 | 98th+0.05 | 33 | PUR +2.1 |
| Purdue passvs Penn State pass Dvs PSU pass D | 20th+0.13 | 9th−0.17 | 36 | PSU +1.9 |
| Penn State runvs Purdue run Dvs PUR run D | 115th−0.07 | 104th+0.06 | 32 | PUR +0.8 |
BIGGEST EDGE · PSU +7.5
Penn State's passing game vs the Purdue pass defense
Penn State gains +0.16 EPA a play on the pass (46th); Purdue allows +0.21 (115th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffensePenn State
PSU OFFWhen Penn State has the ball
DefensePurdue
PUR DEF- +0.0476thEPA / play116th+0.16
- 39.9%99thSuccess rate106th45.1%
- 1.3058thExplosiveness123rd1.37
- 0.00115thRush EPA / play104th+0.12
- +0.1646thPass EPA / dropback115th+0.21
- 44.4%114thStandard downs SR89th48.9%
- 30.0%92ndPassing downs SR127th35.0%
- 2.72128thLine yards104th3.33
- 14.4%87thHavoc rate95th13.1%
- 3.8399thPoints / opportunity119th4.72
- +0.01100thEarly-down EPA / play122nd+0.15
- 35.8%100th3rd-down conversion132nd49.3%
- 13.5%40thStuff rate104th14.3%
- 4.9%62ndSack rate111th4.1%
- 48%130thRed zone TD rate103rd68%
Penn State's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: pass EPA (46th vs 115th).
OffensePurdue
PUR OFFWhen Purdue has the ball
DefensePenn State
PSU DEF- +0.1624thEPA / play28th−0.02
- 44.5%39thSuccess rate41st40.3%
- 1.3818thExplosiveness52nd1.28
- +0.0673rdRush EPA / play98th+0.12
- +0.2420thPass EPA / dropback9th−0.05
- 48.3%50thStandard downs SR51st46.3%
- 33.7%26thPassing downs SR37th29.5%
- 2.92113thLine yards86th3.21
- 13.7%76thHavoc rate28th16.6%
- 4.8831stPoints / opportunity52nd3.75
- +0.1831stEarly-down EPA / play52nd0.00
- 44.2%43rd3rd-down conversion25th32.4%
- 16.3%80thStuff rate46th18.2%
- 4.5%54thSack rate91st4.7%
- 69%47thRed zone TD rate67th61%
Purdue's offense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (76th vs 28th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | PURPUR | PSUPSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.1 | 29.9 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 68.4 | 66.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 52.1% | 58.2% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.0% | +5.9% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 49.0% | 51.8% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 27% | 22% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:54 | 31:28 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.7 | Own 31.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%