Missouri
#22 · 5-2#22 · 5-2 · 2-2 SEC · ATS 3-4
7:45 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · SEC Network
Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville
WIN PROB
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Arkansas
3-43-4 · 1-3 SEC · ATS 3-4
- Spread
- MIZ −10.5
- Open −10.5 · −105
- Total
- 48.5
- Open 48.5 · o −110
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- MIZ −10.5
- open −10.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 48.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arkansas runvs Missouri run Dvs MIZ run DBIGGEST EDGE | 119th−0.08 | 16th−0.09 | 33 | MIZ +8.3 |
| Arkansas passvs Missouri pass Dvs MIZ pass D | 94th−0.05 | 22nd−0.11 | 35 | MIZ +8.0 |
  Missouri passvs Arkansas pass Dvs ARK pass D | 34th+0.07 | 88th+0.03 | 34 | MIZ +5.2 |
| Missouri runvs Arkansas run Dvs ARK run D | 113th−0.07 | 116th+0.07 | 34 | MIZ +0.2 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MIZ +8.3
The Missouri run defense vs Arkansas's run game
Arkansas gains −0.01 EPA a play on the run (119th); Missouri allows −0.02 (16th). About 33 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseArkansas
ARK OFFWhen Arkansas has the ball
DefenseMissouri
MIZ DEF- −0.02104thEPA / play10th−0.10
- 42.2%63rdSuccess rate5th35.4%
- 1.20127thExplosiveness105th1.33
- −0.01119thRush EPA / play16th−0.02
- +0.0694thPass EPA / dropback22nd+0.01
- 48.6%46thStandard downs SR8th41.7%
- 28.8%111thPassing downs SR16th28.4%
- 2.98104thLine yards22nd2.75
- 14.6%88thHavoc rate7th19.3%
- 3.69106thPoints / opportunity64th4.00
- −0.07123rdEarly-down EPA / play8th−0.16
- 44.1%44th3rd-down conversion72nd39.0%
- 14.7%55thStuff rate21st21.6%
- 5.0%70thSack rate63rd5.8%
- 52%115thRed zone TD rate64th60%
Missouri's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (123rd vs 8th).
OffenseMissouri
MIZ OFFWhen Missouri has the ball
DefenseArkansas
ARK DEF- +0.0761stEPA / play88th+0.10
- 40.0%94thSuccess rate100th44.4%
- 1.3626thExplosiveness61st1.29
- 0.00113thRush EPA / play116th+0.14
- +0.1934thPass EPA / dropback88th+0.15
- 45.3%99thStandard downs SR122nd51.1%
- 30.7%76thPassing downs SR14th28.3%
- 2.90117thLine yards111th3.37
- 15.4%104thHavoc rate90th13.3%
- 3.70104thPoints / opportunity135th5.53
- +0.0774thEarly-down EPA / play91st+0.08
- 43.3%50th3rd-down conversion105th42.0%
- 18.7%107thStuff rate116th12.9%
- 2.4%15thSack rate87th4.9%
- 48%129thRed zone TD rate136th88%
Missouri's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (15th vs 87th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | MIZMIZ | ARKARK | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.4 | 31.6 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 67.6 | 68.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 57.8% | 47.8% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.8% | −1.4% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 49.7% | 46.2% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 13% | 21% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:14 | 31:28 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 33.0 | Own 27.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%