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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  TCU runvs Kansas run Dvs KU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 131st−0.13 | 42nd−0.05 | 32 | KU +8.1 |
  Kansas passvs TCU pass Dvs TCU pass D | 69th0.00 | 23rd−0.10 | 33 | TCU +4.5 |
| TCU passvs Kansas pass Dvs KU pass D | 47th+0.04 | 81st+0.02 | 36 | TCU +3.3 |
| Kansas runvs TCU run Dvs TCU run D | 60th+0.01 | 26th−0.07 | 35 | TCU +2.9 |
BIGGEST EDGE · KU +8.1
The Kansas run defense vs TCU's run game
TCU gains −0.06 EPA a play on the run (131st); Kansas allows +0.02 (42nd). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When TCU has the ball
- +0.0289thEPA / play45th+0.02
- 41.3%77thSuccess rate31st39.3%
- 1.3248thExplosiveness89th1.32
- −0.06131stRush EPA / play42nd+0.02
- +0.1647thPass EPA / dropback81st+0.13
- 49.0%41stStandard downs SR35th45.4%
- 27.3%127thPassing downs SR33rd29.3%
- 2.78126thLine yards34th2.81
- 14.7%92ndHavoc rate37th15.7%
- 3.63112thPoints / opportunity29th3.41
- 58%92ndRed zone TD rate55th57%
Kansas's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (127th vs 33rd).
When Kansas has the ball
- +0.0480thEPA / play16th−0.07
- 41.9%67thSuccess rate7th35.7%
- 1.3814thExplosiveness93rd1.32
- +0.0860thRush EPA / play26th0.00
- +0.1169thPass EPA / dropback23rd+0.02
- 48.5%47thStandard downs SR7th41.6%
- 29.1%107thPassing downs SR18th28.5%
- 3.5124thLine yards31st2.80
- 16.1%119thHavoc rate62nd14.7%
- 3.81100thPoints / opportunity27th3.38
- 67%55thRed zone TD rate23rd47%
TCU's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (107th vs 18th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | KUKU | TCUTCU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.5 | 30.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 69.0 | 65.2 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 41.6% | 53.9% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −8.6% | +2.5% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 35.6% | 50.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 39% | 28% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:27 | 31:26 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.1 | Own 31.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
BIG 12 AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 8 T-1 report5 OUT · 1 DOUBTFUL · 1 PROBABLE
- OutSyeed Gibbs · CB
- OutKeaton Kubecka · WR
- OutMason Ellis · S
- OutKasen Carpenter · OL
- OutKaden Moody · OL
- DoubtfulJaden Harris · S
- ProbableCole Ballard · QB
Week 8 T-1 report7 OUT · 1 DOUBTFUL · 1 QUESTIONABLE · 3 PROBABLE
- OutRyan Yaites · S
- OutDevondre McGee · CB
- OutFletcher Fierro · WR
- OutLandon Walker · RB
- OutDevan Robison · OL
- OutKeagan Cunningham · WR
- OutCooper Reid · WR
- DoubtfulJeremy Payne · RB
- QuestionableZach Chapman · EDGE
- ProbableKyle Lemmermann · K
- ProbableKari Ashley · TE
- ProbableFloyd Guidry · DT
Broadcast
FS1Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
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