reportedTCU 360 football desk@By Cal Phillips, Sports Reporter
1dUnconfirmed tip on Payne’s status against West Virginia on Saturday.
Jeremy Payne · RBCHECKING
Big 12 · 3-3 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 1-5
TCU Horned Frogs
HC Sonny Dykes (5th yr) · OC Gordon Sammis · DC Andy Avalos
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (3 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 98%
Power rating6.235th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins6.1of 12
Fan pulse—27 of 30 scored
Big 12 · 3-3 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 3-3 · O/U 1-5
TCU
Horned Frogs · HC Sonny Dykes (5th yr) · starts in 11 (3 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
Power rating6.235th
CFP odds · outlook0%—NEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins6.1of 12
Fan pulse—27 of 30 scored
TCU
3-3 · 1-2 Big 12
POWER RATING6.235th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS6.1of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
3 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 1% · title 1%
FAN PULSE—27 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
TCU · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   vs North Carolina · Dublinvs North Carolina | L10–15 | −7.5−7.5 | L | −0.10 | 34% | 44% | 40% | 70 | 30.6 | |
| 2 |   GramblingGrambling | W63–7 | −44.5−44.5 | W | +0.44 | 66% | 26% | 100% | 68 | 27.2 | |
| 3 |   Arkansas StateArkansas State | W31–7 | −19−19 | W | +0.49 | 46% | 33% | 94% | 67 | 34.8 | |
| 4 |   at UCFat UCF | L13–21 | −3.5−3.5 | L | −0.05 | 37% | 43% | 30% | 67 | 30.4 | |
| 5 |   BYUBYU | L10–17 | +6+6 | L | −0.21 | 36% | 33% | 29% | 55 | 29.8 | |
| 6 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 7 |   at Baylorat Baylor | W17–6 | +3.5+3.5 | W | +0.16 | 36% | 25% | 70% | 64 | 29.2 | |
| 8 |   West VirginiaWest VirginiaNEXT | SAT 12:00 ESPN2SAT 12:00 | −10.5−10.5 | — | — | — | — | 81% | 142 | — | |
| 9 |   KansasKansas | OCT 31OCT 31 | −7.3 proj−7.3 | 67% | |||||||
| 10 |   at Arizonaat Arizona | NOV 6NOV 6 | +6.5 proj+6.5 | 35% | |||||||
| 11 |   Kansas StateKansas State | NOV 14NOV 14 | −5.6 proj−5.6 | 63% | |||||||
| 12 |   UtahUtah | NOV 21NOV 21 | +5.1 proj+5.1 | 38% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Texas Techat Texas Tech | NOV 26NOV 26 | +9.6 proj+9.6 | 28% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st100%n 360%n 544%n 15050%n 2
2nd60%n 1550%n 2426%n 5322%n 23
3rd74%n 1942%n 1929%n 2417%n 18
4th63%n 850%n 20%n 1100%n 1
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 367 OF 367 PLAYS367 OF 367 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun98% | 98% | 54% | 0.00 | 41% |
| Under center2% | 2% | 11% | −0.31 | 56% |
| No-huddle93% | 93% | 53% | −0.02 | 42% |
| Huddle7% | 7% | 60% | +0.25 | 40% |
StartersSTARTERS
113 of 6 games123 of 6BASE D4-2-56 of 6
113 of 64-2-5base D · 6 of 6
In shotgun on 98 % of tagged snaps, passing 54 % of the time (+0.00 EPA a play; −0.31 under center). No-huddle on 93 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 3 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (6 of 6).
Next game
SAT 12:00 ESPN2 · AMON G. CARTER STADIUMSAT 12:00 ESPN2
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
P
Kari AshleyTE · SR
TE · top injuryNEXT UPJ. ScottΔ −0.17 EPA/play
79%TO PLAY
−0.2IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.2 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big 12 crews−0.5 to +0.3 · 49 games | −0.1 | −0.5 to +0.3 | 49 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 5 games | +1.3 | — | 5 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 3 games | −0.9 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | −0.1 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 1 game | +2.0 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTCravonne Barrett−1.0 / g · 4 games · noise−1.0 / g · 4 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTHenry Johns+0.4 / g · 3 games · noise+0.4 / g · 3 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on TCU than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on TCU than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #1 · SRJaden Craig+0.20EPA/dropback · 55thCPOE+3.7aDOT9.3Sack %7.8%RB · #26 · JRJeremy Payne41.4%rush SR · 157thYards per carry4.6Explosive rate4.6%Rush EPA−0.16WR · #18 · SOEd Small2.36YPTPA · 38thTarget share23.9%EPA / target+0.69aDOT9.6EDGE · #16 · SRKoron Hayward6havoc plays · 84thTFL5Sacks5.5Forced fumbles1
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | TCUTCU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.02 | 89th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 41.3% | 76th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.32 | 49th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | −0.06 | 131st | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.16 | 48th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 27.3% | 127th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.78 | 126th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 8.2% | 124th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40% | 71st | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.63 | 112th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 58% | 93rd | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 30.5 | 114th | 28.0 |