West Virginia vs TCU

West Virginia

4-34-3 · 1-3 Big 12 · ATS 3-3-1

12:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN2

Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth

WIN PROB

81%

TCU

3-33-3 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 3-3

Spread: TCU −10.5; Open −7 · −109
Total: 57.5; Open 58.5 · o −116
Model line: TCU −14.7+4.2; Model total 54.4
Win probability: 81%
Projected score: 19.9 – 34.6; WVU – TCU
Projected plays: 142; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: TCU −10.5; open −7
Model: −14.7+4.2; TCU
Total: 57.5; model 54.4

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
TCU passvs West Virginia pass Dvs WVU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	47th+0.04	137th+0.23	38	TCU +15.1
PaceWVU 22.3 s · TCU 30.1 s a snap · avg 131 plays142 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	142	O 4.0
TCU runvs West Virginia run Dvs WVU run D	131st−0.13	106th+0.06	33	WVU +3.5
West Virginia passvs TCU pass Dvs TCU pass D	37th+0.07	23rd−0.10	22	TCU +0.8
West Virginia runvs TCU run Dvs TCU run D	27th+0.07	26th−0.07	49	WVU +0.3

BIGGEST EDGE · TCU +15.1

TCU's passing game vs the West Virginia pass defense

TCU gains +0.16 EPA a play on the pass (47th); West Virginia allows +0.35 (137th). About 38 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseTCU

TCU OFF

When TCU has the ball

DefenseWest Virginia

WVU DEF

+0.0289thEPA / play131st+0.22
41.3%77thSuccess rate132nd47.7%
1.3248thExplosiveness120th1.37
−0.06131stRush EPA / play106th+0.13
+0.1647thPass EPA / dropback137th+0.35
49.0%41stStandard downs SR132nd52.1%
27.3%127thPassing downs SR123rd34.0%
2.78126thLine yards97th3.26
14.7%92ndHavoc rate93rd13.2%
3.63112thPoints / opportunity121st4.78
58%92ndRed zone TD rate64th60%

TCU's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (41st vs 132nd).

OffenseWest Virginia

WVU OFF

When West Virginia has the ball

DefenseTCU

TCU DEF

+0.1243rdEPA / play16th−0.07
41.6%71stSuccess rate7th35.7%
1.407thExplosiveness93rd1.32
+0.1427thRush EPA / play26th0.00
+0.1837thPass EPA / dropback23rd+0.02
45.6%91stStandard downs SR7th41.6%
32.1%43rdPassing downs SR18th28.5%
3.1782ndLine yards31st2.80
12.5%47thHavoc rate62nd14.7%
4.8040thPoints / opportunity27th3.38
69%47thRed zone TD rate23rd47%

TCU's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (7th vs 93rd).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, West Virginia and TCU, season to date
Metric	WVUWVU	TCUTCU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	22.3	30.1	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	76.7	65.2	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	33.5%	53.9%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−17.4%	+2.5%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	28.1%	50.3%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	31%	28%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	28:50	31:26	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 28.1	Own 31.7	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

West Virginia

BIG 12 REPORT · FRI 10:00 PMNET −0.9% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Andre Devine · RBAndre DevineRB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Armoni Weaver-Bomar · WRArmoni Weaver-BomarWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Corey McIntyre Jr. · DLCorey McIntyre Jr.DL · JRReport trail: Doubtful, Doubtful, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.5
Out
Da'Mare Williams · SDa'Mare WilliamsS · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Darius Wiley · DLDarius WileyDL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Emory Snyder · DBEmory SnyderDB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jason Chambers · CBJason ChambersCB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Doubtful, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Probable
Nick Taylor · CBNick TaylorCB · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Available
Harper Holloman · EDGEHarper HollomanEDGE · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
John Neider · WRJohn NeiderWR · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

TCU

BIG 12 REPORT · FRI 10:00 PMNET −0.7% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Cooper Reid · WRCooper ReidWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Devan Robison · OLDevan RobisonOL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Devondre McGee · CBDevondre McGeeCB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Fletcher Fierro · WRFletcher FierroWR · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Keagan Cunningham · WRKeagan CunninghamWR · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Landon Walker · RBLandon WalkerRB · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Ryan Yaites · SRyan YaitesS · SRReport trail: Available, Doubtful, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Doubtful
Jeremy Payne · RBJeremy PayneRB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.2
Questionable
Zach Chapman · EDGEZach ChapmanEDGE · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Floyd Guidry · DTFloyd GuidryDT · SOReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Kari Ashley · TEKari AshleyTE · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.3
Probable
Kyle Lemmermann · KKyle LemmermannK · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

TUE 10:30PSpread −6.5 → −9.5 · 47% tickets WVUSpread −6.5 → −9.5 · 47% on WVURLM
WED 2:15ATotal 58.5 → 56.5 · 76% tickets overTotal 58.5 → 56.5 · 76% on overRLM
THU 1:09PSpread −9 → −10
THU 7:06PTotal 56 → 57

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread TCUSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM	−7	−10.5	−14.7
TotalSTEAM · 7 BOOKSRLM	58.5	57.5	54.4
Moneyline TCU	−267	−387	−436

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

WVU +10.5 · 47% / 70%TCU −10.5 · 53% / 30%

Over · 76% / 72%Under · 24% / 28%

DraftKings bettors, as of 6:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 23-pt gap on WVU suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN2

AnalystDustin Fox

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Sunny: 74°
mph S: 5
Precip: 0%
Surface: Grass

RefereeCrew TBA

RestWVU 7d · TCU 7d

Injury report

West Virginia

TCU

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew