West Virginia
4-34-3 · 1-3 Big 12 · ATS 3-3-1
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN2
Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth
WIN PROB
81%
TCU
TCU
3-33-3 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 3-3
- Spread
- TCU −10.5
- Open −7 · −109
- Total
- 57.5
- Open 58.5 · o −116
- Model line
- TCU −14.7+4.2
- Model total 54.4
- Win probability
- 81%
- Projected score
- 19.9 – 34.6
- WVU – TCU
- Projected plays
- 142
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- TCU −10.5
- open −7
- Model
- −14.7+4.2
- TCU
- Total
- 57.5
- model 54.4
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  TCU passvs West Virginia pass Dvs WVU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 47th+0.04 | 137th+0.23 | 38 | TCU +15.1 |
PaceWVU 22.3 s · TCU 30.1 s a snap · avg 131 plays142 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 142 | O 4.0 |
| TCU runvs West Virginia run Dvs WVU run D | 131st−0.13 | 106th+0.06 | 33 | WVU +3.5 |
  West Virginia passvs TCU pass Dvs TCU pass D | 37th+0.07 | 23rd−0.10 | 22 | TCU +0.8 |
| West Virginia runvs TCU run Dvs TCU run D | 27th+0.07 | 26th−0.07 | 49 | WVU +0.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · TCU +15.1
TCU's passing game vs the West Virginia pass defense
TCU gains +0.16 EPA a play on the pass (47th); West Virginia allows +0.35 (137th). About 38 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseTCU
TCU OFFWhen TCU has the ball
DefenseWest Virginia
WVU DEF- +0.0289thEPA / play131st+0.22
- 41.3%77thSuccess rate132nd47.7%
- 1.3248thExplosiveness120th1.37
- −0.06131stRush EPA / play106th+0.13
- +0.1647thPass EPA / dropback137th+0.35
- 49.0%41stStandard downs SR132nd52.1%
- 27.3%127thPassing downs SR123rd34.0%
- 2.78126thLine yards97th3.26
- 14.7%92ndHavoc rate93rd13.2%
- 3.63112thPoints / opportunity121st4.78
- −0.05115thEarly-down EPA / play136th+0.28
- 40.0%71st3rd-down conversion63rd37.7%
- 19.5%117thStuff rate37th18.9%
- 8.2%123rdSack rate66th5.7%
- 58%92ndRed zone TD rate64th60%
TCU's offense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (41st vs 132nd).
OffenseWest Virginia
WVU OFFWhen West Virginia has the ball
DefenseTCU
TCU DEF- +0.1243rdEPA / play16th−0.07
- 41.6%71stSuccess rate7th35.7%
- 1.407thExplosiveness93rd1.32
- +0.1427thRush EPA / play26th0.00
- +0.1837thPass EPA / dropback23rd+0.02
- 45.6%91stStandard downs SR7th41.6%
- 32.1%43rdPassing downs SR18th28.5%
- 3.1782ndLine yards31st2.80
- 12.5%47thHavoc rate62nd14.7%
- 4.8040thPoints / opportunity27th3.38
- +0.1349thEarly-down EPA / play24th−0.10
- 48.0%26th3rd-down conversion22nd32.1%
- 14.5%53rdStuff rate70th16.3%
- 7.2%105thSack rate45th6.6%
- 69%47thRed zone TD rate23rd47%
TCU's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (7th vs 93rd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | WVUWVU | TCUTCU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 22.3 | 30.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 76.7 | 65.2 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 33.5% | 53.9% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −17.4% | +2.5% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 28.1% | 50.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 31% | 28% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 28:50 | 31:26 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.1 | Own 31.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%