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SAT 7:00 · ACC NETWORK · TALLAHASSEE
Clemson
4-34-3 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 2-5
7:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ACC Network
Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee
WIN PROB
62%
FSU
Florida State
3-43-4 · 1-3 ACC · ATS 3-3-1
Spread
FSU −2
Open +1.5
Total
51.5
Open 51.5 · o −106
Model line
FSU −5.1+3.1
Model total 52.2
Win probability
62%
Projected score
23.6 – 28.7
CLEM – FSU
Projected plays
131
FBS avg 132 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
FSU −2
open +1.5
Model
−5.1+3.1
FSU
Total
51.5
model 52.2

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Florida State passvs Clemson pass Dvs CLEM pass DBIGGEST EDGE
38th+0.063rd−0.2030CLEM +6.2
Clemson passvs Florida State pass Dvs FSU pass D
130th−0.17105th+0.0833FSU +4.4
Florida State runvs Clemson run Dvs CLEM run D
33rd+0.0683rd+0.0235FSU +4.0
Clemson runvs Florida State run Dvs FSU run D
104th−0.0587th+0.0332FSU +0.8
PaceCLEM 26.3 s · FSU 28.0 s a snap · avg 132 plays131 plays vs 132 avg
——131U 0.2

BIGGEST EDGE · CLEM +6.2

The Clemson pass defense vs Florida State's passing game

Florida State gains +0.17 EPA a play on the pass (38th); Clemson allows −0.10 (3rd). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseFlorida State
FSU OFF

When Florida State has the ball

DefenseClemson
CLEM DEF
  • +0.1725thEPA / play18th−0.06
  • 43.8%45thSuccess rate32nd39.2%
  • 1.3913thExplosiveness6th1.18
  • +0.1333rdRush EPA / play83rd+0.09
  • +0.1738thPass EPA / dropback3rd−0.10
  • 46.1%84thStandard downs SR24th43.6%
  • 35.2%10thPassing downs SR90th31.6%
  • 3.4828thLine yards96th3.24
  • 11.7%32ndHavoc rate18th17.4%
  • 4.9821stPoints / opportunity11th3.03
  • 78%11thRed zone TD rate52nd56%

Clemson's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (10th vs 90th).

OffenseClemson
CLEM OFF

When Clemson has the ball

DefenseFlorida State
FSU DEF
  • −0.08125thEPA / play104th+0.13
  • 37.8%123rdSuccess rate87th43.8%
  • 1.2794thExplosiveness93rd1.32
  • +0.02104thRush EPA / play87th+0.10
  • −0.06130thPass EPA / dropback105th+0.19
  • 41.6%133rdStandard downs SR100th49.5%
  • 30.6%72ndPassing downs SR91st31.6%
  • 2.84124thLine yards122nd3.44
  • 15.6%109thHavoc rate123rd11.6%
  • 3.58114thPoints / opportunity66th3.97
  • 40%133rdRed zone TD rate88th67%

Florida State's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (114th vs 66th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Clemson and Florida State, season to date
MetricCLEMCLEMFSUFSUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral26.328.028.9
Plays per gamePlays per game67.463.665.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral45.5%44.4%48.0%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−4.7%−4.8%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral44.4%36.6%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations20%33%26%
Time of possessionTime of possession30:4528:2030:08
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 31.5Own 29.2Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Clemson

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 game-day report4 OUT FOR SEASON · 6 OUT · 1 GAME-TIME DECISION

Florida State

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 7 game-day report9 OUT

Line movement

  • SUN 2:00ASpread +1.5 → −2
Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread FSU
+1.5−2−5.1
Total
51.551.552.2
Moneyline FSU
−108−144−165

Broadcast

ACC Network
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
79°
mph ENE · G18
8
Precip
7%
Surface
Grass
RefereeCrew TBA
RestCLEM 7d · FSU 14dFSU OFF BYE